NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	116		Excitement	16.1 [2]		MVP	Bryn Forbes (SAS): +45.1%
Detroit Pistons	117		Comeback	7.3 [95]		LVP	Derrick Walton Jr. (DET): -45.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bryn Forbes	0.45	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.04,0.09,0.09,0.27,0.17,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.45,0.45	0.12	0.34	0.00	22	57%	0.45	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jock Landale	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	4	80%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Tre Jones	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	10	65%	0.14	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Devin Vassell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.06	0.01	16	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Eubanks	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Wieskamp	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.29,-0.29,-0.05	-0.16	0.10	-0.01	18	30%	0.02	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.11
Joshua Primo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.34	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.16,-0.16,-0.32,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48,-0.48,-0.34,-0.34	-0.08	-0.27	-0.02	11	54%	0.05	6	-0.38	6	50%	-0.28
Derrick White	-0.34	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.34	-0.03	-0.31	0.00	13	50%	0.00	4	-0.34	10	80%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cassius Stanley	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.19	0.10	0.02	8	95%	0.30	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.07
Saddiq Bey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.35,-0.28,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,0.2	0.20	-0.11	0.30	-0.01	23	40%	0.53	5	-0.33	6	83%	-0.06
Luka Garza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.19,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	12	62%	0.31	3	-0.25	8	62%	-0.02
Justin Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Hamidou Diallo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,0.04,-0.07,0	0.00	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	32	47%	0.06	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.03
Deividas Sirvydis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamorko Pickett	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Micah Potter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jaysean Paige	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Walton Jr.	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.45	-0.45	-0.09	-0.38	-0.01	11	42%	-0.16	4	-0.30	4	100%	0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	29.5	15.3	29.7	2.3	38.1	1.5	16.4	161.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	2.3	15.4	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -25.1%

DET +53.4%

DET +28.7%

SAS -15.4%

DET +8.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	13.4	14.7	14.5	102.7	103.5	110.8
season	13.9	14.6		111.3	105.0
opponent	14.4	14.6		112.6	111.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	12.2	13.8	16.3	12.5	11.5	13.4
DET	16.0	11.9	14.3	15.8	17.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Wieskamp	10	10	0.16	-0.66	0.83	-0.07	8	-9	17	12.7	13.5	-0.81	13.1	14.9	-1.75
Bryn Forbes	72	74	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.22	9	-10	19	13.7	13.0	0.77	15.0	14.1	0.99
Jakob Poeltl	78	76	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.23	5	-6	11	13.5	13.3	0.14	15.1	13.9	1.20
Drew Eubanks	6	6	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	3	-7	15.5	13.3	2.17	15.8	14.6	1.20
Joshua Primo	32	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	7	-15	14.2	13.1	1.13	13.4	15.2	-1.84
Keldon Johnson	84	80	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.33	0	-1	1	13.0	14.9	-1.91	15.0	14.0	0.94
Jock Landale	36	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	4	-9	13.7	13.3	0.33	13.3	15.4	-2.09
Derrick White	89	88	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-1	1	13.6	12.8	0.77	15.2	13.0	2.18
Tre Jones	69	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	5	-11	13.4	13.4	0.02	14.4	15.2	-0.79
Devin Vassell	89	90	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.58	-4	3	-7	13.0	15.0	-1.92	14.8	14.4	0.39

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cassius Stanley	76	76	0.86	-0.36	1.21	0.53	11	-10	21	14.6	14.9	-0.33	13.9	12.5	1.38
Saddiq Bey	99	99	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.38	11	-10	21	15.0	12.6	2.35	13.3	14.1	-0.80
Hamidou Diallo	103	104	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.54	4	-3	7	15.1	10.9	4.17	13.7	10.9	2.77
Derrick Walton Jr.	84	87	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.41	7	-6	13	15.2	13.2	2.05	13.1	14.4	-1.27
Luka Garza	80	82	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.16	15	-14	29	15.5	12.8	2.61	14.0	11.9	2.08
Micah Potter	32	30	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.26	-13	14	-27	13.2	15.3	-2.07	12.3	13.9	-1.56
Jamorko Pickett	13	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	7	-13	11.2	15.2	-4.01	13.7	13.4	0.32
Jaysean Paige	17	15	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.08	-10	11	-21	13.4	14.9	-1.58	11.8	13.7	-1.89
Deividas Sirvydis	11	12	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.02	-7	8	-15	12.8	14.9	-2.08	12.1	13.6	-1.52
Justin Robinson	50	49	-0.24	0.74	-0.97	-0.03	-7	8	-15	14.2	15.1	-0.97	13.5	13.4	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.55,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.57,0.61,0.81,0.86,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.82,0.46,0.61,0.85,0.86,0.31,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 107, DEN 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.46,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.55,0.63,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.74,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.46,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.42,1	88.4%
PHI 87, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.71,0.68,0.74,0.84,0.78,0.62,0.63,0.76,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.68,0.73,1	88.0%
IND 105, PHI 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.29,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.63,0.64,0.34,0.13,0.53,0.71,0.68,0.9,0.5,0.47,0.54,0.65,0.42,1	86.7%