NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	110		Excitement	7.8 [309]		MVP	Mike Muscala (OKC): +43.3%
Toronto Raptors	109		Comeback	4.6 [122]		LVP	Josh Giddey (OKC): -16.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Muscala	0.43	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.43	0.02	0.41	-0.00	6	50%	0.43	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0.33	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.09,0.13,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.33	0.07	0.26	-0.01	17	57%	0.37	2	-0.04	12	100%	0.14
Darius Bazley	0.17	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.04	0.01	8	94%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.08	0.01	18	55%	0.17	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Kenrich Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	4	112%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	2	62%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Tre Mann	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	6	25%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aleksej Pokusevski	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Giddey	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	12	54%	-0.05	5	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.17	0.14	0.01	17	71%	0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Champagnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.18	0.02	2	100%	0.21	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Scottie Barnes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	17	53%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	15	70%	0.15	5	-0.10	3	33%	-0.01
Chris Boucher	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	9	52%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Isaac Bonga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.00	3	62%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yuta Watanabe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Fred VanVleet	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.21,-0.21,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	0.01	0.03	20	43%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	0.04
Dalano Banton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Svi Mykhailiuk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.7	25.2	14.5	27.5	2.3	31.4	125.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +50.6%

OKC +13.6%

TOR -6.1%

TOR -6.4%

TOR -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	TOR	NBA	OKC	TOR	NBA
this game	14.2	15.1	14.5	112.2	110.1	110.8
season	14.4	14.9		103.2	111.3
opponent	14.8	14.4		109.9	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.9	15.7	12.4	14.8	14.2
TOR	13.8	14.3	17.6	14.6	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenrich Williams	42	42	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.44	4	-3	7	16.2	12.7	3.51	14.4	15.5	-1.12
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl	36	38	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.38	5	-4	9	12.8	15.0	-2.13	16.2	14.3	1.93
Luguentz Dort	78	79	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.52	-3	4	-7	13.5	16.8	-3.29	15.1	14.7	0.44
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.52	-3	4	-7	13.4	17.0	-3.63	15.3	14.3	1.03
Tre Mann	36	36	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-9	19	15.5	13.4	2.08	14.7	15.3	-0.60
Derrick Favors	34	34	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.07	10	-9	19	15.3	13.6	1.70	14.7	15.2	-0.57
Darius Bazley	67	68	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.42	-8	9	-17	13.1	16.5	-3.36	15.3	14.5	0.73
Josh Giddey	63	64	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.08	6	-5	11	14.0	14.4	-0.38	15.3	14.6	0.65
Aleksej Pokusevski	20	20	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.05	4	-3	7	16.8	13.5	3.29	14.7	15.1	-0.44
Paul Watson	6	6	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	6	-11	16.5	14.0	2.47	13.0	15.2	-2.18
Mike Muscala	32	32	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.03	-15	16	-31	14.4	14.1	0.33	14.2	15.5	-1.28

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Boucher	46	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	1	-3	15.5	14.7	0.84	13.9	14.4	-0.46
Svi Mykhailiuk	13	14	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	0	-1	17.4	14.7	2.69	15.9	13.9	1.95
Justin Champagnie	25	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.39	10	-11	21	14.6	15.2	-0.66	14.8	14.0	0.86
Gary Trent Jr.	81	79	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.39	8	-9	17	14.9	15.8	-0.96	13.8	15.6	-1.80
Pascal Siakam	80	77	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.40	8	-9	17	15.3	13.9	1.43	14.1	14.7	-0.61
Yuta Watanabe	36	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	1	-3	14.6	15.3	-0.65	14.8	13.8	1.08
Dalano Banton	22	23	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	10	-21	14.3	15.3	-0.94	16.5	13.5	3.00
Isaac Bonga	28	29	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.12	-9	8	-17	14.7	15.2	-0.42	14.0	14.2	-0.21
Fred VanVleet	82	80	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.48	2	-3	5	15.0	15.1	-0.01	13.6	16.9	-3.31
Scottie Barnes	82	81	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.39	-8	7	-15	15.0	15.5	-0.51	14.0	15.1	-1.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.69,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.59,0.45,0.53,0.38,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 108, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.61,0.68,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.3,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	93.3%
LAL 117, SAC 92	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.83,0.82,0.73,0.73,0.62,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.22,0.18,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%
ORL 96, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.34,0.26,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.16,0	92.8%