NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	108		Excitement	4.8 [883]		MVP	Terry Rozier (BOS): +23.1%
Indiana Pacers	98		Comeback	4.5 [397]		LVP	Darren Collison (IND): -3.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terry Rozier	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.17	0.07	0.00	9	89%	0.23	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Al Horford	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.11	0.06	0.02	15	66%	0.17	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Marcus Smart	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.00	8	94%	0.17	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	80%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	20	60%	0.09	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	10	48%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Shane Larkin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	6	38%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Semi Ojeleye	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Abdel Nader	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	9	73%	0.11	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Domantas Sabonis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	13	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.03
Joe Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.10	0.00	0.10	9	90%	0.08	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	5	50%	0.03	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.02	-0.03	12	42%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	12	46%	0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	11	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	1.8	22.1	14.6	26.5	2.3	24.5	114.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +48.1%

IND -0.4%

IND -4.5%

BOS +6.1%

BOS +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	IND	NBA	BOS	IND	NBA
this game	14.6	15.9	14.7	113.7	104.3	107.5
season	15.1	14.8		106.4	108.3
opponent	15.0	14.7		106.7	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.7	15.2	11.7	17.2	14.6
IND	14.1	15.4	19.1	14.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jayson Tatum	75	72	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.16	12	-2	14	14.8	13.9	0.93	16.2	14.5	1.70
Daniel Theis	42	43	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.21	8	2	6	14.2	15.0	-0.83	15.4	16.2	-0.84
Terry Rozier	40	39	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	4	2	14.0	15.1	-1.05	17.3	14.8	2.49
Al Horford	64	63	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	-2	14	14.9	14.1	0.75	15.6	16.4	-0.80
Marcus Smart	68	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-2	14	14.9	14.0	0.83	15.7	16.3	-0.68
Kyrie Irving	69	70	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	1	8	14.3	15.4	-1.04	14.9	18.7	-3.84
Aron Baynes	47	45	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	6	-2	15.0	14.3	0.69	16.5	15.3	1.22
Semi Ojeleye	37	37	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	14	-18	14.3	14.8	-0.55	16.1	15.7	0.33
Shane Larkin	7	8	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	9	-8	14.6	14.6	-0.06	16.0	15.8	0.16
Abdel Nader	26	26	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.14	-10	20	-30	15.2	14.4	0.72	15.7	15.9	-0.27

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	26	26	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.12	7	-17	24	15.5	16.0	-0.43	14.5	14.7	-0.18
Myles Turner	61	61	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-15	20	15.4	16.7	-1.35	15.2	13.6	1.62
Darren Collison	61	60	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.12	3	-13	16	15.4	16.7	-1.30	15.5	13.1	2.36
Joe Young	20	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.11	-2	-8	6	16.4	15.7	0.70	13.7	14.9	-1.12
Thaddeus Young	64	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.16	-8	-2	-6	16.2	15.2	1.01	14.8	14.2	0.66
Lance Stephenson	71	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.09	-12	2	-14	16.0	15.5	0.44	14.4	15.2	-0.77
Cory Joseph	45	48	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	2	-14	16.0	15.8	0.20	14.2	15.1	-0.90
Bojan Bogdanovic	62	62	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.04	-16	6	-22	15.7	16.1	-0.37	14.5	14.9	-0.43
Domantas Sabonis	60	60	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	5	-20	16.3	15.0	1.33	14.0	15.7	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.61,0.68,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.3,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.73,0.58,0.65,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.62,0.52,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.18,0.1,0.13,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0	94.4%
ORL 96, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.34,0.26,0.13,0.1,0.18,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.16,0	94.2%
NJN 95, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.73,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.41,0.48,0.41,0.26,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.14,0.15,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.02,0,0	93.9%