NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Hornets	125		Excitement	10.7 [49]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +41.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	127		Comeback	5.2 [405]		LVP	Terry Rozier (CHA): -7.5%

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMelo Ball	0.41	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.41	0.14	0.27	-0.01	22	75%	0.83	7	-0.41	4	100%	0.02
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.16	0.02	0.01	14	81%	0.22	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Gordon Hayward	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.1	0.10	0.00	0.00	11	62%	0.10	0	0.00	7	100%	0.14
Miles Bridges	0.05	0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.11,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	18	58%	0.13	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Jalen McDaniels	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Richards	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Washington	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Rozier	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.01	10	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.24,0.42	0.42	0.13	0.32	0.03	24	66%	0.71	6	-0.30	13	69%	-0.05
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.15,-0.03,0.4	0.40	0.04	0.34	-0.02	18	51%	0.41	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.08
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	8	69%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grayson Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	9	80%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	0.00	5	70%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thanasis Antetokounmpo	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Hood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	7	61%	0.09	2	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Bobby Portis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	11	42%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.06	0.02	11	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.5	15.3	30.4	2.3	40.4	143.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +21.5%

MIL +7.4%

CHA -7.1%

MIL +16.8%

MIL +11.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	MIL	NBA	CHA	MIL	NBA
this game	13.6	13.4	14.5	116.8	118.7	110.8
season	14.0	13.7		112.9	112.2
opponent	14.8	14.5		109.4	112.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	12.1	13.1	15.3	13.9	13.6
MIL	12.3	14.6	12.9	13.8	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Oubre Jr.	66	66	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	2	-6	13.3	14.0	-0.73	14.2	12.0	2.13
LaMelo Ball	90	92	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.11	2	-4	6	13.8	12.5	1.28	13.2	14.3	-1.05
Ish Smith	6	6	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	3	-8	15.0	13.5	1.53	14.0	13.3	0.67
Nick Richards	3	2	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.10	-7	5	-12	15.0	13.5	1.49	10.0	13.4	-3.43
Jalen McDaniels	49	50	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.45	5	-7	12	13.0	14.0	-1.05	14.3	12.6	1.68
Miles Bridges	80	79	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.25	-2	0	-2	13.7	13.0	0.74	13.2	13.7	-0.52
Gordon Hayward	72	72	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-6	10	13.7	13.2	0.52	13.3	13.5	-0.22
Terry Rozier	88	87	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.64	2	-4	6	13.4	14.4	-0.99	12.9	15.4	-2.50
P.J. Washington	81	81	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.58	-5	3	-8	13.6	13.4	0.17	13.0	14.3	-1.30

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khris Middleton	74	76	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.57	4	-2	6	13.0	14.2	-1.27	13.5	13.6	-0.04
Pat Connaughton	57	57	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.42	3	-1	4	14.2	12.4	1.89	13.1	14.1	-0.99
Grayson Allen	69	70	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.48	1	1	0	13.3	13.4	-0.13	13.2	14.1	-0.89
Giannis Antetokounmpo	86	86	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	-2	6	13.0	14.9	-1.86	13.7	13.1	0.51
Jrue Holiday	83	82	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.43	-5	7	-12	13.5	13.0	0.52	14.0	12.1	1.92
George Hill	63	62	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	-7	16	13.3	13.5	-0.19	13.4	13.8	-0.39
DeMarcus Cousins	31	31	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.23	9	-7	16	14.5	12.9	1.67	13.5	13.6	-0.05
Thanasis Antetokounmpo	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	0.0	13.4	-13.36	2.0	13.7	-11.66
Bobby Portis	58	56	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.16	-6	8	-14	13.4	13.3	0.03	14.4	12.6	1.73
Rodney Hood	14	14	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.09	-9	11	-20	11.3	13.7	-2.39	12.1	13.8	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.2,0.19,0.32,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.24,0.32,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.57,0.48,0.53,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.53,0.46,0.34,0.23,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 84, GSW 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.26,0.23,0.21,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.41,0.35,0.32,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.46,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.42,1	91.9%
CHI 82, PHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.32,0.31,0.41,0.4,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.4,0.39,0.59,0.29,0.23,0.42,1	91.0%
MIL 88, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.42,0.53,0.29,0.22,0.55,0.61,0.45,0.58,1	90.6%