NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	3.3 [1115]		MVP	Jordan Clarkson (UTA): +17.3%
Utah Jazz	105		Comeback	1.2 [292]		LVP	Donovan Mitchell (UTA): -4.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.17	-0.00	0.04	14	79%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Tucker	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	6	108%	0.12	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	-0.00	-0.06	11	48%	0.07	1	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Kyle Lowry	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	14	68%	0.13	5	-0.07	3	100%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	23	52%	0.11	4	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Max Strus	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	8	33%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Clarkson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.02	-0.07	17	64%	0.20	4	-0.02	5	100%	0.01
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.09	-0.00	0.05	7	74%	0.03	1	-0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Mike Conley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.01
Joe Ingles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.12	19	62%	0.00	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Eric Paschall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.00	-0.04	3	12%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	0.05	19	51%	-0.00	3	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.4	29.8	15.0	29.3	2.5	42.2	149.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +37.8%

MIA +0.5%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +2.6%

UTA -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	UTA	NBA	MIA	UTA	NBA
this game	15.1	13.9	14.5	111.0	106.1	110.8
season	14.9	14.8		112.0	115.1
opponent	14.7	14.9		110.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.3	16.0	15.6	15.5	15.1
UTA	15.5	15.3	13.8	11.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	72	71	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.02	20	-14	34	14.7	16.1	-1.48	14.1	13.3	0.75
Tyler Herro	76	76	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.33	8	-2	10	15.3	14.5	0.82	14.3	12.5	1.80
P.J. Tucker	70	68	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.14	14	-8	22	15.1	14.9	0.21	14.1	13.4	0.73
Bam Adebayo	73	75	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.48	-1	7	-8	15.5	13.9	1.63	14.2	12.8	1.35
Kyle Lowry	78	74	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.30	-2	8	-10	15.0	15.4	-0.42	13.0	16.3	-3.29
Gabe Vincent	28	31	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	6	-6	14.7	15.2	-0.56	14.3	13.6	0.68
Dewayne Dedmon	26	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.10	5	1	4	14.2	15.4	-1.15	13.3	14.0	-0.67
Max Strus	47	46	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.21	-6	12	-18	15.6	14.6	0.93	13.6	14.1	-0.51
Caleb Martin	30	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.18	-8	14	-22	14.9	15.1	-0.21	13.4	14.1	-0.73

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Paschall	19	20	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-4	2	13.8	13.9	-0.09	14.0	15.3	-1.29
Joe Ingles	51	50	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-3	0	13.4	14.4	-1.04	14.3	15.8	-1.48
Hassan Whiteside	26	25	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.23	-14	8	-22	14.9	13.5	1.44	14.9	15.1	-0.21
Jordan Clarkson	66	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.34	5	-11	16	13.3	15.1	-1.80	15.1	14.9	0.21
Rudy Gobert	71	73	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.55	8	-14	22	13.8	14.1	-0.30	15.5	14.0	1.53
Donovan Mitchell	77	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-11	16	13.5	15.2	-1.76	15.6	13.2	2.33
Mike Conley	54	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.04	-14	8	-22	14.9	12.7	2.19	14.8	15.4	-0.66
Royce O'Neale	71	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.20	-8	2	-10	14.0	13.4	0.60	15.2	14.7	0.51
Bojan Bogdanovic	60	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.27	-7	1	-8	14.0	13.6	0.40	15.0	15.2	-0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 101, HOU 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
SAC 124, DAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
SEA 114, HOU 80	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.27,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.28,0.27,0.2,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%