NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	97		Excitement	1.5 [759]		MVP	Tyus Jones (MEM): +23.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	106		Comeback	1.2 [798]		LVP	Ziaire Williams (MEM): -8.4%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	15	68%	0.18	3	-0.08	4	75%	0.01
P.J. Dozier	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	6	58%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	75%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.01	0.02	12	56%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Bones Hyland	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	0.04	10	40%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	12	46%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	9	45%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Jeff Green	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	7	50%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Will Barton	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	8	22%	-0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.07	-0.01	9	94%	0.25	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Xavier Tillman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.03	7	71%	0.12	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Jaren Jackson Jr.	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	79%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	10	45%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Konchar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Bane	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
De'Anthony Melton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	11	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ja Morant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	0.03	22	57%	0.05	4	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Ziaire Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	11	23%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.3	2.3	27.5	15.3	23.7	2.5	29.4	122.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +33.5%

DEN -9.0%

MEM +18.7%

MEM +7.2%

DEN -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	MEM	NBA	DEN	MEM	NBA
this game	14.2	15.0	14.5	99.0	107.1	110.8
season	14.8	14.1		113.4	112.9
opponent	14.3	14.4		107.8	111.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.8	12.1	15.1	15.2	14.2
MEM	14.6	14.0	14.3	17.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gordon	57	58	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.16	5	-14	19	14.5	13.9	0.60	15.3	14.6	0.68
Monte Morris	57	57	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-11	13	14.5	13.8	0.68	15.1	14.9	0.22
Bones Hyland	30	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.18	2	-11	13	14.8	14.0	0.78	16.3	14.4	1.85
Michael Porter Jr.	73	75	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-12	15	14.0	14.8	-0.72	15.2	14.5	0.73
Nikola Jokic	68	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.19	0	-9	9	14.2	14.2	-0.01	15.0	15.1	-0.13
JaMychal Green	30	30	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.04	-9	0	-9	14.2	14.2	0.01	15.1	15.0	0.13
Will Barton	62	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	5	-19	14.6	13.6	0.93	14.1	16.6	-2.49
Facundo Campazzo	34	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.07	-10	1	-11	13.4	14.7	-1.24	15.0	15.0	0.03
P.J. Dozier	38	39	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.15	-10	1	-11	13.9	14.4	-0.54	15.0	15.0	-0.02
Jeff Green	41	41	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	5	-19	13.9	14.5	-0.60	14.6	15.3	-0.68

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyus Jones	54	53	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.24	7	2	5	16.1	13.7	2.42	13.9	14.6	-0.69
Kyle Anderson	53	50	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.24	3	6	-3	16.4	13.4	2.98	12.5	16.0	-3.44
Ja Morant	72	71	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	7	-5	15.2	14.4	0.88	14.2	14.4	-0.25
Ziaire Williams	33	32	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.13	6	3	3	15.2	14.9	0.26	14.6	14.1	0.50
Xavier Tillman	34	35	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	2	5	14.8	15.1	-0.37	14.6	14.0	0.54
Steven Adams	65	63	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	7	-5	15.1	14.8	0.37	14.0	14.6	-0.54
De'Anthony Melton	54	53	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.02	6	3	3	14.1	16.0	-1.90	14.8	13.5	1.32
Desmond Bane	67	67	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	6	-3	14.6	15.9	-1.32	14.1	14.6	-0.52
John Konchar	25	26	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.02	6	3	3	14.6	15.1	-0.55	14.3	14.2	0.06
Jaren Jackson Jr.	38	40	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	6	-3	13.2	16.2	-3.01	16.0	13.0	3.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 79, NOH 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.53,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.6,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.45,0.52,0.66,0.7,0.85,0.81,0.92,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
OKC 108, ORL 121	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.3%
SAC 98, SAS 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.74,0.74,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.83,0.89,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.9%