NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	107		Excitement	1.3 [945]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +10.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	98		Comeback	2.5 [459]		LVP	Jusuf Nurkic (POR): -7.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.04	-0.02	11	58%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	13	62%	0.10	3	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Kendrick Nunn	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.02	12	58%	0.07	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	5	90%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	14	61%	0.10	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.02
Duncan Robinson	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	8	44%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	5	82%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Norman Powell	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	13	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	5	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ Elleby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.06	0.00	0.06	2	125%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	75%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Harry Giles III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anfernee Simons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	62%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nassir Little	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.02	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Robert Covington	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	10	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Damian Lillard	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	-0.01	-0.05	10	50%	0.07	5	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	18	47%	0.02	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	3	60%	0.02	4	-0.09	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	23.2	14.5	29.2	1.8	27.4	124.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.5%

MIA +1.1%

POR -2.2%

MIA +27.0%

MIA +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	16.2	13.8	14.4	111.5	102.1	111.3
season	14.6	14.9		109.3	116.9
opponent	14.2	14.9		115.1	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.3	15.8	16.0	18.8	16.2
POR	13.4	16.2	14.0	11.7	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Herro	60	60	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.15	11	-2	13	16.7	15.4	1.29	13.3	14.6	-1.29
Jimmy Butler	73	72	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.38	2	7	-5	16.2	16.1	0.09	13.6	14.4	-0.76
Bam Adebayo	69	70	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.33	-1	10	-11	16.4	15.7	0.74	13.8	13.9	-0.11
Kendrick Nunn	65	65	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.25	1	8	-7	16.3	15.9	0.39	13.8	13.8	-0.05
Andre Iguodala	50	50	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.16	4	5	-1	16.6	15.7	0.88	13.5	14.1	-0.55
Trevor Ariza	46	46	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	4	1	15.7	16.6	-0.88	14.1	13.5	0.55
Goran Dragic	47	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	-0.10	11	-2	13	15.8	16.6	-0.80	13.3	14.3	-1.02
Precious Achiuwa	27	26	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.10	10	-1	11	15.7	16.4	-0.74	13.9	13.8	0.11
Duncan Robinson	43	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	7	-5	15.7	16.6	-0.82	15.4	12.5	2.89

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-19	29	8.7	14.3	-5.67	18.5	15.9	2.57
Anfernee Simons	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-19	29	8.7	14.3	-5.67	18.5	15.9	2.57
CJ Elleby	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-19	29	8.7	14.3	-5.67	18.5	15.9	2.57
Harry Giles III	9	10	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-19	29	8.7	14.3	-5.67	18.5	15.9	2.57
Nassir Little	27	26	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-11	13	11.0	14.9	-3.95	16.0	16.3	-0.27
Enes Kanter	40	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.01	-7	-2	-5	14.2	13.5	0.72	15.4	16.8	-1.41
Damian Lillard	74	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.03	-10	1	-11	14.1	12.7	1.45	16.2	16.3	-0.11
Jusuf Nurkic	44	44	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	2	-13	14.4	13.3	1.12	16.5	15.9	0.56
Derrick Jones Jr.	29	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.11	-13	4	-17	13.7	13.9	-0.16	15.3	16.6	-1.31
Robert Covington	63	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.07	-7	-2	-5	14.8	11.9	2.88	16.3	16.0	0.35
CJ McCollum	70	71	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.11	-8	-1	-7	14.7	11.4	3.32	16.4	15.8	0.59
Norman Powell	65	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.04	-11	2	-13	14.8	11.7	3.09	15.9	16.9	-1.00
Carmelo Anthony	32	32	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.19	-20	11	-31	14.0	13.7	0.30	15.0	16.8	-1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.15,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 107, PHX 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.68,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.36,0.41,0.33,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
DAL 111, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
PHI 107, GSW 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.16,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%