NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	111		Excitement	6.5 [480]		MVP	Doug McDermott (IND): +15.3%
Orlando Magic	106		Comeback	1.3 [883]		LVP	Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL): -13.6%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	13	68%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Aaron Holiday	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	14	71%	0.19	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Edmond Sumner	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.13	0.00	0.04	5	92%	0.09	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
T.J. McConnell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Goga Bitadze	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.05	-0.00	7	36%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Justin Holiday	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Caris LeVert	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	12	41%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	14	34%	-0.03	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Domantas Sabonis	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	44%	0.01	4	-0.09	12	75%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08	0.08	0.14	-0.01	0.05	15	73%	0.15	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
James Ennis III	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.01	0.04	6	70%	0.08	0	0.00	8	87%	0.00
Chuma Okeke	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	-0.00	5	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.03	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
R.J. Hampton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	3	-0.09	2	0%	-0.03
Dwayne Bacon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	9	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.01	0.00	10	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.02	0.03	8	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Cole Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	12	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Wendell Carter Jr.	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.03	0.03	11	36%	-0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	1.7	28.5	14.8	27.8	1.8	36.6	138.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +49.8%

ORL -2.3%

ORL -0.9%

IND +5.5%

ORL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	ORL	NBA	IND	ORL	NBA
this game	12.2	15.1	14.4	105.7	100.0	111.3
season	13.6	14.9		111.5	103.9
opponent	14.0	14.4		113.4	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	12.5	11.1	11.6	13.8	12.2
ORL	14.6	16.2	15.1	14.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lamb	43	43	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.11	12	-7	19	12.1	12.3	-0.14	14.5	15.5	-0.93
Aaron Holiday	51	53	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.09	12	-7	19	11.4	13.0	-1.57	14.7	15.5	-0.81
Domantas Sabonis	72	73	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.18	6	-1	7	12.0	12.6	-0.59	15.1	15.1	0.04
Caris LeVert	63	64	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.16	6	-1	7	12.4	11.9	0.45	15.0	15.2	-0.14
Edmond Sumner	46	48	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.00	8	-3	11	11.6	12.7	-1.09	15.5	14.7	0.83
Doug McDermott	47	45	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.18	1	4	-3	12.1	12.2	-0.09	15.6	14.7	0.90
T.J. McConnell	57	58	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.41	-8	13	-21	13.0	11.2	1.75	14.7	15.5	-0.83
Goga Bitadze	34	33	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.17	-1	6	-7	12.3	12.2	0.10	15.1	15.1	-0.04
Malcolm Brogdon	61	61	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.25	-5	10	-15	12.4	11.9	0.58	15.3	14.8	0.57
Justin Holiday	51	52	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.22	-6	11	-17	12.5	11.9	0.56	15.3	14.9	0.40

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwayne Bacon	41	40	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.21	11	-16	27	15.4	14.9	0.50	12.6	11.9	0.69
Michael Carter-Williams	49	48	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.29	10	-15	25	14.7	15.4	-0.65	12.9	11.6	1.28
Gary Harris	39	40	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-7	9	15.7	14.7	1.00	11.5	12.6	-1.13
Wendell Carter Jr.	55	56	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.19	-1	-4	3	15.2	14.9	0.31	12.9	11.4	1.52
James Ennis III	73	73	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-6	7	14.7	16.0	-1.37	12.8	10.9	1.91
Mo Bamba	51	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.17	-4	-1	-3	14.9	15.2	-0.31	11.4	12.9	-1.52
Chuma Okeke	64	61	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-1	-3	15.1	15.0	0.10	12.1	12.4	-0.28
Terrence Ross	58	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.16	-11	6	-17	15.2	15.0	0.23	12.4	11.9	0.55
Cole Anthony	57	57	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.07	-15	10	-25	15.4	14.7	0.65	11.6	12.9	-1.28
R.J. Hampton	43	42	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	9	-23	14.7	15.3	-0.57	11.3	12.8	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.53,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.24,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.23,0.32,0.24,0.3,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.29,0.17,0.08,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 99, BKN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.27,0.2,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.19,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.02,0	94.7%
DAL 113, DET 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.28,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	94.5%
DEN 93, HOU 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.34,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.18,0.26,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.1,0.07,0	94.5%