NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	112		Excitement	8.8 [160]		MVP	Raul Neto (WAS): +23.0%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	2.4 [234]		LVP	Facundo Campazzo (DEN): -20.4%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raul Neto	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23	0.08	0.12	-0.02	10	62%	0.23	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Bradley Beal	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22	0.16	0.07	0.01	19	67%	0.29	2	-0.07	11	100%	0.10
Rui Hachimura	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.03	-0.01	16	59%	0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Robin Lopez	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	7	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Deni Avdija	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Garrison Mathews	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Brown Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Moritz Wagner	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Alex Len	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	17	42%	0.03	5	-0.17	4	75%	-0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.27,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.07	-0.02	23	67%	0.42	5	-0.21	5	80%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.01	0.01	18	62%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Monte Morris	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.03	0.08	-0.02	8	50%	0.13	2	-0.06	8	87%	0.09
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	117%	0.14	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	13	64%	0.16	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.05
Vlatko Cancar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	45%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.02	7	14%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2	-0.20	-0.05	-0.16	-0.00	8	28%	-0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.3	30.6	15.3	25.4	1.8	30.2	128.6
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +6.2%

DEN -1.4%

WAS +7.5%

WAS +27.3%

WAS +10.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DEN	NBA	WAS	DEN	NBA
this game	14.5	14.3	14.4	112.0	110.0	111.3
season	13.3	15.0		109.9	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.1		112.3	112.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.3	14.1	15.5	16.5	14.5
DEN	14.8	12.5	14.5	15.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rui Hachimura	80	80	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.47	6	-4	10	14.8	13.4	1.41	13.8	15.9	-2.10
Bradley Beal	75	76	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.56	2	0	2	15.2	12.6	2.52	13.6	16.3	-2.66
Raul Neto	57	56	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.41	5	-3	8	14.8	14.2	0.56	14.7	13.8	0.89
Russell Westbrook	79	79	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.45	1	1	0	14.3	15.4	-1.14	14.3	14.0	0.34
Troy Brown Jr.	31	32	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	-1	4	13.6	14.9	-1.33	16.9	13.0	3.92
Alex Len	9	10	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.04	-2	4	-6	14.0	14.6	-0.58	17.6	13.9	3.70
Deni Avdija	40	39	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	-0.08	-2	4	-6	14.0	14.9	-0.88	15.6	13.4	2.12
Garrison Mathews	38	38	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.04	-7	9	-16	14.1	14.8	-0.64	12.1	15.6	-3.45
Moritz Wagner	41	42	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.10	-9	11	-20	14.5	14.6	-0.07	12.3	15.7	-3.38

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zeke Nnaji	27	29	0.22	-0.72	0.95	0.05	6	-8	14	16.3	13.5	2.83	14.4	14.6	-0.12
Isaiah Hartenstein	21	19	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.07	0	-2	2	17.7	13.4	4.36	13.2	14.9	-1.69
Will Barton	48	49	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	0	-2	12.9	15.5	-2.64	14.6	14.5	0.04
Vlatko Cancar	20	20	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.07	-8	6	-14	15.6	13.9	1.66	12.7	15.0	-2.29
Jamal Murray	88	86	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.44	1	-3	4	14.5	12.6	1.92	14.6	14.3	0.28
Facundo Campazzo	64	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	1	-4	15.0	13.0	1.98	14.5	14.7	-0.20
Michael Porter Jr.	85	82	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.45	0	-2	2	14.6	12.1	2.51	14.6	14.3	0.31
Nikola Jokic	79	81	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.51	-2	0	-2	13.4	17.7	-4.36	14.9	13.2	1.69
Monte Morris	68	69	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.55	-2	0	-2	12.6	17.8	-5.26	15.0	13.4	1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.26,0.22,0.34,0.39,0.44,0.56,0.49,0.32,0.43,0.38,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, POR 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.27,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.52,0.5,0.38,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.05,0	92.2%
PHI 79, DEN 78	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.41,0.37,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.37,0.09,0.1,0	91.6%
BOS 97, CHA 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.38,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.46,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.02,0	91.4%