NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	5.8 [583]		MVP	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): +17.1%
Oklahoma City Thunder	94		Comeback	3.8 [533]		LVP	Darius Bazley (OKC): -12.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Duncan Robinson	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.06	15	73%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.02	0.07	-0.03	11	44%	0.11	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.02	-0.00	10	73%	0.18	4	-0.11	6	83%	0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jimmy Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	11	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.06
KZ Okpala	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.07	18	51%	-0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	4	75%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	9	55%	0.06	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.07	0.03	15	75%	0.26	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Isaiah Roby	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.02	0.03	5	100%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Theo Maledon	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.03	8	61%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	-0.08	15	31%	0.01	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.01
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Hamidou Diallo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	0.01	-0.04	0.10	9	72%	-0.01	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.5	30.2	14.8	29.2	2.7	26.5	128.4
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +17.2%

MIA +9.1%

MIA +14.3%

MIA +10.4%

OKC -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	14.5	16.0	14.4	113.7	100.0	111.3
season	14.6	14.2		109.3	102.4
opponent	14.0	14.9		112.7	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.9	13.4	12.0	15.5	14.5
OKC	17.2	12.7	16.3	18.8	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendrick Nunn	81	81	0.64	-0.14	0.77	-0.04	23	-9	32	14.8	12.6	2.12	16.1	15.8	0.30
Max Strus	56	56	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.17	14	0	14	14.6	14.3	0.29	17.1	14.4	2.70
Andre Iguodala	45	45	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.10	8	6	2	14.7	14.3	0.41	16.8	15.3	1.52
Precious Achiuwa	20	18	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.20	3	11	-8	12.3	15.0	-2.66	15.1	16.3	-1.21
Bam Adebayo	73	73	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.11	13	1	12	15.0	12.6	2.36	16.3	15.0	1.27
Jimmy Butler	61	59	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	3	8	14.1	15.1	-0.99	15.3	17.2	-1.91
Duncan Robinson	73	72	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	6	2	14.8	13.4	1.42	15.8	16.9	-1.09
Kelly Olynyk	48	48	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.13	10	4	6	14.4	14.5	-0.03	15.4	16.7	-1.38
KZ Okpala	4	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.12	-6	20	-26	12.7	14.5	-1.78	14.5	16.1	-1.60
Gabe Vincent	14	14	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.18	-14	28	-42	12.0	14.9	-2.88	15.7	16.1	-0.37

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Bazley	61	62	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.05	-6	-8	2	15.6	16.8	-1.21	15.5	12.5	2.97
Isaiah Roby	54	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	-7	0	15.4	16.8	-1.42	15.2	13.4	1.73
Theo Maledon	67	67	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.09	-5	-9	4	16.1	15.8	0.30	14.8	13.5	1.30
Luguentz Dort	62	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.06	-11	-3	-8	15.6	16.8	-1.23	15.0	13.4	1.58
Justin Jackson	31	30	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-8	2	16.8	15.6	1.20	12.6	15.3	-2.76
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	68	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.16	-15	1	-16	15.8	16.6	-0.81	14.8	13.5	1.31
Mike Muscala	40	40	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.12	-7	-7	0	16.8	15.4	1.42	13.4	15.2	-1.73
Kenrich Williams	46	47	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-11	8	16.5	15.6	0.92	13.7	15.2	-1.49
Hamidou Diallo	41	41	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.20	-10	-4	-6	16.4	15.8	0.64	13.1	15.5	-2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.75,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.63,0.59,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.18,0.14,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, POR 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.08,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%
SAC 96, TOR 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.42,0.3,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.1%
DEN 110, MIN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.32,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.01,0.02,0,0,0	92.8%