NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	134		Excitement	10.5 [45]		MVP	Domantas Sabonis (IND): +30.3%
Minnesota Timberwolves	128		Comeback	24.5 [76]		LVP	Anthony Edwards (MIN): -21.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Domantas Sabonis	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.04,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.17	0.16	0.03	21	68%	0.38	3	-0.07	11	82%	0.07
Aaron Holiday	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24	0.07	0.16	0.00	9	68%	0.26	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.29,0.24,0.24,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.22	0.14	0.11	0.02	22	70%	0.38	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lamb	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.15	0.04	14	55%	0.19	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
T.J. McConnell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Myles Turner	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Doug McDermott	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	10	40%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	58%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.29,0.22	0.22	0.11	0.15	0.03	25	61%	0.35	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.29,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.03	0.00	19	60%	0.19	2	-0.04	12	100%	0.08
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	13	65%	0.16	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.04
Jaden McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.09	-0.00	10	55%	0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Naz Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.00	-0.02	14	62%	0.10	1	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jaylen Nowell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarred Vanderbilt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jordan McLaughlin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Edwards	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.09,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.13	-0.09	-0.01	15	25%	-0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.6	2.4	36.6	14.5	23.2	1.8	33.0	2.5	16.4	154.9
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	2.3	15.8	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +43.5%

IND +11.8%

IND +13.1%

MIN -11.8%

MIN -6.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIN	NBA	IND	MIN	NBA
this game	13.1	15.0	14.4	120.7	111.3	111.3
season	13.6	14.1		111.5	108.7
opponent	14.0	14.4		113.9	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
IND	12.0	12.8	13.8	12.8	16.7	13.1
MIN	14.6	13.9	16.2	15.3	15.0	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	85	90	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.31	20	-14	34	12.8	14.3	-1.52	14.9	15.3	-0.45
Justin Holiday	78	81	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.43	14	-8	22	12.8	14.0	-1.17	15.1	14.7	0.37
Domantas Sabonis	94	99	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.30	6	0	6	13.3	12.1	1.28	15.0	15.0	-0.04
Jeremy Lamb	59	60	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.49	-4	10	-14	13.3	13.0	0.27	15.1	14.8	0.39
Myles Turner	64	65	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	-4	14	13.1	13.2	-0.05	14.9	15.0	-0.06
Aaron Holiday	53	59	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.21	-1	7	-8	13.8	12.6	1.20	15.3	14.6	0.73
T.J. McConnell	62	62	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.13	-4	10	-14	12.6	13.8	-1.24	14.7	15.2	-0.48
Doug McDermott	60	59	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	-0.08	-11	17	-28	13.7	12.5	1.21	14.7	15.2	-0.56

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Okogie	31	32	0.27	-0.77	1.05	0.01	9	-15	24	14.9	15.0	-0.04	14.2	12.7	1.47
Jaden McDaniels	70	69	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.04	6	-12	18	14.8	15.3	-0.50	12.6	14.0	-1.34
Naz Reid	39	40	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.08	4	-10	14	15.3	14.8	0.52	11.5	14.0	-2.49
Jordan McLaughlin	39	38	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.04	4	-10	14	15.1	14.9	0.25	12.9	13.3	-0.38
Jaylen Nowell	14	14	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-8	10	14.4	15.0	-0.69	11.4	13.4	-1.96
Jarred Vanderbilt	42	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-3	0	14.8	15.0	-0.21	13.6	12.9	0.73
Malik Beasley	88	86	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-11	16	15.1	14.6	0.54	12.9	14.0	-1.05
Anthony Edwards	75	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.05	-17	11	-28	15.0	14.9	0.06	12.8	13.7	-0.82
Ricky Rubio	76	73	-0.65	0.15	-0.81	-0.36	-10	4	-14	14.9	15.1	-0.25	13.3	12.9	0.38
Karl-Anthony Towns	81	76	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.32	-18	12	-30	15.0	14.9	0.08	13.8	11.7	2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.73,0.66,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.86,0.83,0.77,0.78,0.41,0.39,0.25,0.45,0.57,0.91,0.54,0.32,0.15,0.24,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 102, GSW 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.85,0.79,0.86,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.69,0.53,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.67,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.29,0.09,0.02,0	89.8%
SAS 110, GSW 105	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.82,0.69,0.45,0.67,0.92,0.46,0.31,0.1,0.11,0.09,0	88.7%
DAL 129, MEM 127	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.82,0.91,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.89,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.62,0.68,0.47,0.66,0.46,0.38,0.46,0.83,0.73,0.46,0.25,0.11,0.15,0.04,0	88.7%