NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	9.1 [119]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +24.6%
Golden State Warriors	105		Comeback	21.4 [80]		LVP	Tony Parker (SAS): -17.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.01,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.25	0.08	0.14	-0.02	23	55%	0.40	3	-0.15	12	92%	0.16
Tim Duncan	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.04	0.05	20	67%	0.24	6	-0.17	8	75%	-0.01
Malik Hairston	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	8	41%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Finley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	6	42%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	57%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.11,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18	-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	18	48%	0.01	6	-0.19	12	58%	-0.08

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andris Biedrins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.04	0.01	7	69%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.07	-0.04	0.00	6	79%	0.07	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	54%	0.05	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Stephen Jackson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.15,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	0.06	-0.11	0.01	25	58%	0.04	4	-0.11	7	71%	0.01
Corey Maggette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	13	47%	-0.03	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.05
Monta Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.02	0.01	20	42%	0.06	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	10	20%	-0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.5	1.6	29.5	15.5	28.5	2.4	37.4	2.4	17.5	158.3
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	2.0	41.4	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -1.2%

SAS +34.3%

SAS +17.1%

GSW -5.0%

SAS +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	GSW	NBA	SAS	GSW	NBA
this game	15.2	14.0	15.5	100.9	96.3	106.4
season	16.4	13.8		106.6	107.3
opponent	15.0	15.7		111.2	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.0	17.2	14.8	15.3	12.7	15.2
GSW	13.8	14.1	14.0	16.0	10.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	56	56	1.01	-0.51	1.53	0.40	21	-16	37	14.3	16.2	-1.85	14.2	13.7	0.42
Manu Ginobili	72	73	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.40	12	-7	19	14.4	16.9	-2.49	14.2	13.6	0.60
Tony Parker	88	88	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.33	14	-9	23	15.0	16.0	-1.02	14.2	13.0	1.24
Michael Finley	72	72	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.30	14	-9	23	15.5	14.7	0.74	14.0	13.8	0.26
Tim Duncan	83	84	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.18	11	-6	17	15.6	14.2	1.40	14.2	13.0	1.29
Malik Hairston	5	4	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	7	-9	14.0	15.3	-1.28	10.0	14.1	-4.10
Roger Mason Jr.	74	72	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.05	-7	12	-19	15.0	15.6	-0.56	13.7	14.5	-0.77
Bruce Bowen	34	35	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.14	-11	16	-27	15.3	15.2	0.15	12.5	14.6	-2.12
George Hill	26	26	-0.38	0.88	-1.25	0.03	-14	19	-33	16.7	14.7	1.98	13.9	14.0	-0.09
Matt Bonner	35	35	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	-0.09	-13	18	-31	16.9	14.4	2.50	14.2	13.8	0.36

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelenna Azubuike	50	51	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.07	4	-9	13	14.2	13.8	0.42	15.4	15.0	0.40
Andris Biedrins	46	47	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.04	-2	-3	1	13.8	14.0	-0.18	14.9	15.4	-0.50
CJ Watson	53	53	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.28	0	-5	5	13.9	14.0	-0.06	15.3	15.1	0.23
Monta Ellis	75	75	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	0	-5	13.8	14.2	-0.41	15.3	14.9	0.41
Jamal Crawford	96	96	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.27	-6	1	-7	14.1	13.2	0.91	15.0	16.7	-1.67
Stephen Jackson	109	109	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.0	0.0	13.95	15.2	0.0	15.22
Corey Maggette	69	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.47	-2	-3	1	13.8	14.3	-0.55	15.2	15.3	-0.17
Ronny Turiaf	47	45	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	4	-13	14.1	13.8	0.31	15.4	15.1	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.46,0.36,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.84,0.81,0.72,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.82,0.69,0.45,0.67,0.92,0.46,0.31,0.1,0.11,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 125, DET 119	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.9,0.81,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.78,0.67,0.78,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.72,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.05,0.17,0	89.6%
OKC 114, ORL 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.74,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.89,0.87,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.85,0.94,0.98,0.93,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.84,0.54,0.53,0.15,0.03,0.02,0	88.4%
NYK 116, DET 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.41,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.89,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.78,0.62,0.79,0.55,0.73,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.32,0.18,0	88.3%