NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	95		Excitement	7.1 [388]		MVP	Will Barton (DEN): +17.8%
Denver Nuggets	97		Comeback	11.2 [239]		LVP	JaMychal Green (DEN): -14.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Jackson	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.13	0.03	-0.01	11	80%	0.21	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Isaiah Roby	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Muscala	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	8	41%	0.01	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.01
Darius Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luguentz Dort	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	0.01	-0.03	0.02	14	48%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Kenrich Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Darius Bazley	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	35%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Al Horford	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.11,-0.11	0.04	-0.12	0.03	15	50%	-0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Hamidou Diallo	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.01	15	47%	0.01	3	-0.14	4	75%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.18	0.18	-0.01	0.18	-0.00	8	62%	0.27	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	16	65%	0.13	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.00	10	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
R.J. Hampton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.01	19	52%	0.06	2	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Facundo Campazzo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.04	-0.01	7	14%	-0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	1.7	20.7	14.7	24.5	0.3	35.4	123.9
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +58.5%

OKC -5.6%

OKC -16.0%

DEN +14.2%

OKC -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	DEN	NBA	OKC	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	14.3	14.4	97.9	101.0	111.3
season	14.2	15.0		102.4	116.0
opponent	14.4	14.0		112.3	112.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	13.7	16.7	17.3	14.7	15.5
DEN	15.8	15.3	12.7	13.5	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darius Miller	20	22	0.26	-0.76	1.03	-0.06	11	-13	24	13.4	16.1	-2.69	15.5	13.9	1.61
Mike Muscala	45	46	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.00	8	-10	18	14.5	16.4	-1.95	14.8	13.8	0.96
Justin Jackson	60	58	0.07	-0.57	0.63	0.01	2	-4	6	14.3	17.5	-3.24	13.6	15.3	-1.68
Hamidou Diallo	71	71	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	-0.37	-6	4	-10	16.4	13.2	3.15	14.7	13.2	1.54
Al Horford	56	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.41	-6	4	-10	16.4	14.3	2.11	14.2	14.4	-0.24
Luguentz Dort	61	60	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.53	-2	0	-2	16.1	14.6	1.47	14.7	13.6	1.11
Darius Bazley	58	58	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.41	-7	5	-12	16.1	14.6	1.50	14.2	14.5	-0.28
Kenrich Williams	75	72	-0.81	0.31	-1.12	-0.40	-14	12	-26	15.8	14.6	1.22	13.5	16.8	-3.32

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	75	77	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.38	16	-14	30	13.8	16.2	-2.42	16.4	12.1	4.27
Will Barton	69	70	0.79	-0.29	1.09	0.35	15	-13	28	13.8	15.6	-1.85	17.1	11.4	5.67
Paul Millsap	62	62	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.32	13	-11	24	14.5	13.9	0.65	17.6	11.9	5.71
Michael Porter Jr.	61	62	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.38	9	-7	16	14.1	14.6	-0.42	16.2	14.4	1.78
Nikola Jokic	72	71	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.36	5	-3	8	14.5	13.8	0.68	16.1	14.1	1.99
JaMychal Green	35	36	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	7	-12	14.2	14.3	-0.12	13.5	16.7	-3.19
Facundo Campazzo	13	13	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.08	-10	12	-22	16.4	14.0	2.41	11.7	16.1	-4.44
Zeke Nnaji	13	13	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.08	-10	12	-22	16.4	14.0	2.41	11.7	16.1	-4.44
R.J. Hampton	41	41	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.07	-10	12	-22	14.2	14.4	-0.14	13.6	16.9	-3.34
Monte Morris	39	40	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.12	-13	15	-28	14.6	14.1	0.44	12.2	17.9	-5.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.23,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.12,0.14,0.32,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.1,0.28,0.23,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, SAC 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.22,0.3,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.09,0.18,0.1,0.16,0.32,0.58,1	91.5%
VAN 110, WAS 112	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.26,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.11,0.17,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.03,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.43,0.59,1	91.2%
SAC 97, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.26,0.18,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.18,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.31,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.25,0.23,0.1,0.05,0.17,0.25,0.28,0.43,0.74,1	91.1%