NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	100		Excitement	8.6 [189]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +42.8%
San Antonio Spurs	105		Comeback	3.8 [341]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -35.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.43	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.22,0.43	0.25	0.19	0.01	17	80%	0.46	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.06
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.13	0.01	0.02	16	69%	0.17	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Mychal Mulder	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Toscano-Anderson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.10	2	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Eric Paschall	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	5	40%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	12	39%	0.01	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Damion Lee	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Brad Wanamaker	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	5	20%	-0.08	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	-0.36	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.24,-0.24,-0.32,-0.36	-0.17	-0.21	-0.02	11	29%	-0.17	5	-0.18	2	0%	-0.13

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devin Vassell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.04	0.00	4	125%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.04	-0.01	9	78%	0.16	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.18,-0.05,-0.05,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.09	0.01	19	61%	0.38	4	-0.26	6	83%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.03	0.11	-0.01	10	44%	0.13	1	-0.04	5	60%	0.04
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.01	10	45%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,0	0.00	0.04	-0.01	0.02	15	55%	0.08	2	-0.08	8	100%	0.06
Drew Eubanks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	13	35%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.16	-0.06	-0.01	11	9%	-0.17	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.4	28.2	14.6	25.2	2.4	37.5	136.9
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +14.0%

SAS +15.0%

GSW -2.7%

SAS +19.9%

SAS +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	13.1	14.6	14.4	95.2	101.9	111.3
season	13.5	14.6		109.9	109.8
opponent	14.2	14.5		111.3	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.0	12.6	14.1	12.9	13.1
SAS	15.2	13.1	16.6	13.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kent Bazemore	27	27	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.00	5	-10	15	12.3	13.4	-1.03	15.7	14.2	1.53
Draymond Green	77	76	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-8	11	12.7	14.2	-1.53	15.0	13.6	1.38
Stephen Curry	77	76	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-8	11	12.7	14.2	-1.53	15.0	13.6	1.38
Mychal Mulder	21	19	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.09	-5	0	-5	14.1	12.8	1.25	12.5	15.1	-2.56
Damion Lee	42	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.36	4	-9	13	12.8	13.3	-0.56	14.3	14.8	-0.53
Juan Toscano-Anderson	63	60	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	4	-13	13.3	12.8	0.56	14.8	14.3	0.53
Kelly Oubre Jr.	77	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	2	-9	13.1	13.0	0.08	15.0	13.6	1.38
Brad Wanamaker	28	27	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	3	-11	14.2	12.7	1.53	13.6	15.0	-1.38
Eric Paschall	28	27	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.18	-8	3	-11	14.2	12.7	1.53	13.6	15.0	-1.38
Andrew Wiggins	85	84	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.43	-3	-2	-1	13.1	13.2	-0.13	14.4	15.6	-1.19

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dejounte Murray	80	84	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-4	13	13.8	17.6	-3.80	13.0	13.5	-0.54
Jakob Poeltl	62	64	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.09	15	-10	25	14.6	14.6	-0.04	14.0	11.7	2.32
Rudy Gay	55	55	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.49	-4	9	-13	14.9	14.2	0.72	12.5	13.8	-1.31
Patty Mills	62	62	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.51	-5	10	-15	14.7	14.5	0.17	12.2	14.4	-2.28
DeMar DeRozan	75	77	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.06	6	-1	7	15.0	13.5	1.53	13.1	13.1	0.03
Devin Vassell	45	43	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	4	-3	14.8	14.4	0.37	13.3	12.9	0.43
Keldon Johnson	58	60	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.05	6	-1	7	15.1	14.0	1.09	13.5	12.6	0.94
Derrick White	53	55	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.08	1	4	-3	15.0	14.2	0.84	13.5	12.7	0.75
Drew Eubanks	25	25	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.21	-4	9	-13	12.9	15.2	-2.29	12.6	13.2	-0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.23,0.24,0.25,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.46,0.48,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.69,0.58,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.57,0.46,0.62,0.77,0.92,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 107, DET 109	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.35,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.77,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.69,0.64,0.93,0.91,1	92.0%
SAC 88, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.72,0.63,0.52,0.6,0.46,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.88,0.96,0.94,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.89,0.99,1	91.7%
MIA 80, DAL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.27,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.75,0.83,0.99,1,1	91.4%