NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	84		Excitement	8.2 [236]		MVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): +20.1%
New York Knicks	91		Comeback	1.5 [540]		LVP	Cole Anthony (ORL): -17.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0.20	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.16	0.07	0.03	16	71%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.19,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1	-0.02	0.14	0.03	16	50%	0.16	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.01
Jordan Bone	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	2	125%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis III	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,-0.05	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	18	45%	0.15	4	-0.19	4	100%	0.03
Khem Birch	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	4	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Gary Clark	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwayne Bacon	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cole Anthony	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	12	25%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Julius Randle	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.09,-0.11,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.11	0.03	19	41%	0.05	0	0.00	13	69%	-0.08
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	11	52%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	19	52%	0.09	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Obi Toppin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Knox II	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nerlens Noel	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	17%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Mitchell Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	5	37%	-0.13	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	26.4	15.5	25.4	2.4	38.5	133.8
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL -6.0%

ORL -5.1%

NYK +37.8%

NYK +15.9%

NYK +7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NYK	NBA	ORL	NYK	NBA
this game	14.2	15.4	14.4	84.8	94.8	111.3
season	14.9	15.2		103.9	109.2
opponent	14.6	14.0		107.4	113.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.2	11.4	15.3	13.2	14.2
NYK	16.3	16.9	12.8	15.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Ennis III	49	49	0.26	-0.76	1.02	-0.00	9	-16	25	14.8	13.5	1.24	15.7	15.1	0.63
Gary Clark	39	36	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.05	4	-11	15	13.4	14.6	-1.27	15.5	15.3	0.19
Aaron Gordon	74	72	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.40	15	-22	37	13.6	15.9	-2.37	16.0	13.7	2.21
Jordan Bone	25	24	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-6	5	13.8	14.3	-0.52	15.1	15.5	-0.43
Terrence Ross	69	68	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-4	1	13.3	16.1	-2.84	15.5	15.2	0.22
Nikola Vucevic	74	73	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.28	-3	-4	1	14.2	14.1	0.04	15.9	13.9	1.96
Dwayne Bacon	55	53	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.03	-19	12	-31	15.7	12.2	3.50	14.8	16.1	-1.33
Cole Anthony	56	54	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.24	-14	7	-21	14.8	13.3	1.50	15.4	15.4	0.09
Khem Birch	54	51	-0.86	0.36	-1.22	-0.18	-23	16	-39	14.0	14.4	-0.41	14.2	16.8	-2.54

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elfrid Payton	66	69	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.19	20	-13	33	14.7	17.1	-2.42	15.0	12.1	2.90
RJ Barrett	76	79	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.24	16	-9	25	15.1	16.6	-1.57	14.6	12.3	2.26
Julius Randle	77	81	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.25	15	-8	23	15.4	15.6	-0.28	14.6	12.2	2.43
Mitchell Robinson	69	71	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-6	19	15.4	15.5	-0.10	14.4	13.6	0.81
Reggie Bullock	59	62	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.18	9	-2	11	15.6	15.1	0.57	14.5	13.5	1.02
Austin Rivers	37	37	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.11	-2	9	-11	15.1	15.6	-0.57	13.5	14.5	-1.02
Nerlens Noel	27	28	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.03	-6	13	-19	15.5	15.4	0.10	13.6	14.4	-0.81
Obi Toppin	19	18	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	15	-23	15.6	15.4	0.28	12.2	14.6	-2.43
Kevin Knox II	20	20	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.06	-9	16	-25	16.6	15.1	1.57	12.3	14.6	-2.26
Immanuel Quickley	30	30	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.10	-13	20	-33	17.1	14.7	2.42	12.1	15.0	-2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.87,0.79,0.83,0.77,0.69,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.55,0.67,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 100, TOR 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.7,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.82,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.79,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.68,0.46,0.77,0.58,1	93.3%
BOS 96, ATL 100	0.5,0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.87,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.68,0.53,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.68,0.85,1	92.7%
HOU 82, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.66,0.54,0.39,0.55,0.57,0.58,1	92.4%