NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	128		Excitement	5.2 [680]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +23.2%
Washington Wizards	124		Comeback	1.1 [904]		LVP	Raul Neto (WAS): -13.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.17	0.03	-0.03	10	105%	0.27	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0.12	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	20	65%	0.15	3	-0.02	8	75%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.13	-0.03	0.06	18	62%	0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.01	15	60%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.02	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Precious Achiuwa	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	78%	0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	8	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
KZ Okpala	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	8	31%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Bam Adebayo	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	0.03	4	60%	0.01	4	-0.08	7	71%	0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Garrison Mathews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	12	71%	0.17	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.01
Jerome Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	-0.00	8	67%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.02	6	81%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Moritz Wagner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.09	-0.01	0.05	7	72%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Thomas Bryant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaac Bonga	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Brown Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.00	0.03	0.00	0.04	6	54%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Deni Avdija	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03	-0.03	0.14	-0.04	0.12	15	65%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	7	26%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Rui Hachimura	0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	0.05	18	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	11	41%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Raul Neto	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.04	0.00	9	29%	-0.09	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	2.3	32.8	14.8	23.8	0.7	31.5	133.5
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.2%

WAS -8.5%

MIA +23.7%

WAS -14.9%

MIA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	13.3	13.0	14.4	116.4	113.8	111.3
season	14.6	13.3		109.3	109.9
opponent	14.1	14.9		112.4	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	11.3	14.7	12.7	14.4	13.3
WAS	14.0	12.5	15.0	10.8	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	78	80	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.22	10	-6	16	13.1	13.7	-0.64	12.7	13.8	-1.08
Kelly Olynyk	74	72	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.29	3	1	2	12.8	14.2	-1.38	13.2	12.8	0.38
Tyler Herro	88	86	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.40	-2	6	-8	12.7	15.6	-2.91	13.3	11.9	1.42
Bam Adebayo	49	51	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	0	4	12.4	13.9	-1.47	13.9	12.3	1.55
Precious Achiuwa	26	26	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	-1	6	15.4	12.6	2.83	12.9	13.1	-0.20
Goran Dragic	43	43	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	0	4	14.1	12.7	1.32	13.2	12.9	0.32
Meyers Leonard	18	17	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-1	6	12.9	13.3	-0.45	12.2	13.2	-0.95
KZ Okpala	17	16	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	2	0	13.9	13.1	0.80	12.4	13.1	-0.70
Avery Bradley	43	41	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.19	-10	14	-24	14.2	12.7	1.55	12.9	13.1	-0.29
Andre Iguodala	32	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	0.22	-12	16	-28	13.7	13.1	0.60	12.9	13.1	-0.14

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaac Bonga	1	0	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-4	4	0.0	13.2	-13.16	0.0	13.3	-13.26
Troy Brown Jr.	51	51	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.39	11	-15	26	12.9	13.2	-0.29	13.2	13.3	-0.13
Thomas Bryant	4	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.05	-4	0	-4	15.7	12.9	2.82	11.6	13.3	-1.74
Garrison Mathews	53	56	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.40	11	-15	26	12.2	13.9	-1.69	13.6	12.9	0.77
Moritz Wagner	41	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.09	-2	-2	0	12.6	13.3	-0.76	15.3	12.0	3.31
Rui Hachimura	59	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-8	12	13.1	13.0	0.10	13.0	13.5	-0.48
Davis Bertans	50	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	4	-12	13.0	13.1	-0.10	13.5	13.0	0.48
Deni Avdija	74	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.30	-4	0	-4	12.9	13.3	-0.32	12.9	13.9	-1.03
Jerome Robinson	54	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.04	-17	13	-30	13.5	12.6	0.95	13.1	13.5	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.49,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.14,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 105, CHA 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
WAS 108, NJN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.36,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
MIL 100, NYK 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.4,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.6%