NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	8.6 [191]		MVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): +29.3%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	2.6 [319]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -23.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jayson Tatum	0.29	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.11	0.17	-0.01	21	61%	0.36	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Payton Pritchard	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.27	-0.05	0.31	-0.01	10	30%	0.27	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.07	-0.00	3	100%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Daniel Theis	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09	0.04	0.07	0.02	11	59%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0,0,0,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	23	44%	0.09	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Carsen Edwards	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Semi Ojeleye	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.02	-0.02	7	36%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.23	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.23	-0.01	-0.21	0.01	10	41%	-0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.2	0.20	0.01	0.20	0.01	12	52%	0.29	2	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.09	0.05	0.00	7	79%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.02	19	55%	0.17	1	-0.04	9	89%	0.06
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	0.00	5	90%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02	0.02	0.13	-0.04	0.07	11	70%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	58%	0.06	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Precious Achiuwa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Herro	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	8	38%	-0.02	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.02
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	4	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.8	29.1	15.5	25.7	2.7	35.3	139.2
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +34.4%

MIA -14.7%

BOS +24.3%

BOS +7.3%

MIA -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.1	14.3	14.4	112.6	110.5	111.3
season	14.5	14.6		112.8	109.3
opponent	14.9	14.5		110.4	111.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	16.9	15.7	16.3	16.1
MIA	13.4	13.7	14.3	15.7	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Williams	54	53	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-6	14	15.9	16.2	-0.32	15.6	12.5	3.14
Jayson Tatum	72	72	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.39	7	-5	12	17.0	13.3	3.70	14.3	14.0	0.33
Daniel Theis	58	57	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.51	-4	6	-10	16.0	16.2	-0.25	13.3	15.7	-2.34
Marcus Smart	65	66	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.43	-6	8	-14	16.2	15.8	0.38	13.1	16.8	-3.66
Jaylen Brown	75	75	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.48	-8	10	-18	15.8	17.2	-1.44	13.6	16.6	-3.04
Payton Pritchard	41	40	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	-4	10	15.4	16.5	-1.10	15.1	13.6	1.55
Robert Williams III	26	27	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.01	3	-1	4	16.7	15.8	0.92	16.2	13.5	2.70
Semi Ojeleye	26	25	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	1	0	17.2	15.6	1.55	13.6	14.5	-0.94
Carsen Edwards	18	19	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	0	2	14.2	16.5	-2.27	17.2	13.5	3.70
Tristan Thompson	40	41	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.08	1	1	0	15.4	16.5	-1.06	13.5	14.8	-1.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Duncan Robinson	66	63	0.24	-0.74	0.97	-0.12	12	-14	26	13.7	15.4	-1.67	15.6	17.1	-1.51
Kelly Olynyk	40	43	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.08	2	-4	6	13.4	14.9	-1.43	17.1	15.2	1.92
Precious Achiuwa	29	31	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.14	7	-9	16	14.2	14.3	-0.12	14.8	16.7	-1.91
Avery Bradley	47	47	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.09	-3	1	-4	14.8	13.7	1.02	15.2	16.9	-1.73
Jimmy Butler	65	66	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.48	8	-10	18	13.1	16.7	-3.53	16.9	14.2	2.72
Tyler Herro	68	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.57	2	-4	6	13.6	15.8	-2.18	16.0	16.2	-0.19
Bam Adebayo	66	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	7	-16	14.3	14.2	0.12	16.7	14.8	1.91
Goran Dragic	54	54	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.44	-8	6	-14	15.2	13.0	2.12	16.2	15.9	0.33
Andre Iguodala	40	37	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.15	-21	19	-40	16.9	12.3	4.66	15.2	16.6	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.34,0.42,0.48,0.61,0.48,0.62,0.65,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.5,0.66,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.69,0.66,0.55,0.37,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 94, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.68,0.58,0.65,0.73,0.54,0.36,0.14,0.05,0	90.8%
DAL 108, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.27,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.7,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.46,0.22,0.23,0.05,0	90.5%
TOR 87, BKN 79	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.47,0.25,0.15,0.09,0.01,0	90.2%