NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	95		Excitement	8.2 [224]		MVP	Josh Hart (NOP): +8.0%
New Orleans Pelicans	98		Comeback	1.9 [631]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -19.0%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Rudy Gay	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	20	52%	0.06	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lonnie Walker IV	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.08	-0.08	0.00	14	57%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keldon Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.02	10	64%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Trey Lyles	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Vassell	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.16,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	9	72%	0.08	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.19	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	12	31%	-0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Hart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	0.00	6	71%	0.08	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Jaxson Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.03	-0.02	3	75%	0.08	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Lonzo Ball	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	14	53%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	11	32%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.01	-0.01	22	35%	-0.04	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	8	18%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Ingram	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.07,-0.03,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.13	0.02	23	50%	-0.07	3	-0.10	10	80%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	2.5	26.6	15.2	25.7	2.6	35.0	130.3
league avg	25.6	2.4	28.1	14.8	28.0	2.3	32.7	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -16.6%

NOP +8.3%

NOP +17.2%

NOP +25.9%

NOP +15.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	NOP	NBA	SAS	NOP	NBA
this game	14.3	13.9	14.4	93.1	96.1	111.3
season	14.6	14.0		109.8	112.4
opponent	14.4	14.2		112.5	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.2	15.1	13.5	12.7	14.3
NOP	14.5	12.6	14.2	14.5	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	47	49	0.40	-0.90	1.30	-0.04	15	-18	33	13.9	14.7	-0.80	14.7	13.2	1.51
Patty Mills	47	48	0.28	-0.78	1.05	-0.05	11	-14	25	14.5	14.1	0.38	14.4	13.5	0.92
Devin Vassell	25	25	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.04	6	-9	15	13.6	14.5	-0.88	15.0	13.6	1.36
Rudy Gay	60	61	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.32	9	-12	21	13.5	15.4	-1.91	13.7	14.2	-0.52
Trey Lyles	11	12	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	3	-9	18.0	13.9	4.14	14.0	13.9	0.08
Keldon Johnson	67	65	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.34	3	-6	9	13.6	15.6	-2.02	14.9	12.2	2.78
Dejounte Murray	68	68	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.32	-6	3	-9	14.1	14.7	-0.56	13.7	14.4	-0.72
LaMarcus Aldridge	43	42	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.03	-16	13	-29	16.2	12.9	3.33	13.2	14.4	-1.22
Lonnie Walker IV	75	72	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.42	-13	10	-23	14.5	13.9	0.56	13.4	15.2	-1.80
DeMar DeRozan	67	68	-1.04	0.54	-1.59	-0.52	-18	15	-33	14.3	14.3	-0.06	13.1	15.6	-2.49

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Ingram	75	77	0.99	-0.49	1.48	0.55	15	-12	27	13.5	15.2	-1.71	14.4	14.0	0.40
Steven Adams	65	68	0.97	-0.47	1.45	0.45	18	-15	33	13.3	15.1	-1.85	14.7	13.5	1.25
Josh Hart	71	72	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-7	17	13.2	15.5	-2.32	14.1	14.7	-0.56
Lonzo Ball	79	80	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.41	8	-5	13	13.9	14.1	-0.26	14.4	14.1	0.27
Zion Williamson	80	79	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.28	-1	4	-5	14.6	11.4	3.22	13.9	15.6	-1.68
Eric Bledsoe	61	58	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.04	-4	7	-11	14.0	13.8	0.17	14.9	13.5	1.41
Jaxson Hayes	37	34	-0.47	0.97	-1.45	-0.03	-15	18	-33	15.1	13.3	1.85	13.5	14.7	-1.25
JJ Redick	42	42	-0.49	0.99	-1.48	-0.02	-16	19	-35	14.6	13.4	1.17	14.2	14.4	-0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.39,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.64,0.61,0.51,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.86,0.86,0.95,0.88,0.81,0.74,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.47,0.66,0.41,0.79,0.91,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 83, ORL 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.84,0.83,0.76,0.89,0.87,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.77,0.61,0.84,1,1,1	92.2%
GSW 95, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.78,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.74,0.74,0.62,0.42,0.37,0.26,0.15,0.33,0.46,0.72,0.86,0.73,1	91.2%
WAS 107, CHI 108	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.74,0.66,0.48,0.33,0.53,0.65,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.85,0.85,1	90.9%