NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	121		Excitement	10.1 [80]		MVP	Kyle Kuzma (LAL): +61.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	124		Comeback	11.6 [170]		LVP	Alex Caruso (LAL): -5.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
PJ Dozier	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.19,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.27	0.11	0.16	0.00	7	86%	0.50	3	-0.23	7	86%	-0.11
Monte Morris	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.17,0.16	0.05	0.12	0.00	11	58%	0.22	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.08
Keita Bates-Diop	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.04	0.12	-0.00	8	56%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Mason Plumlee	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.10	0.00	8	61%	0.15	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	7	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	10	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Paul Millsap	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.01	7	81%	0.13	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0.06	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.10	-0.02	0.02	6	125%	0.16	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bol Bol	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Torrey Craig	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.61	0.61	0.18	0.43	-0.01	16	78%	0.65	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.34	0.34	0.03	0.31	0.00	21	56%	0.49	5	-0.15	10	60%	-0.02
Anthony Davis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.10	0.18	0.02	15	64%	0.31	2	-0.04	12	75%	0.03
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.05	0.18	-0.04	10	55%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.07	0.00	2	89%	0.16	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Markieff Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.01	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.06	-0.06	-0.00	8	71%	0.05	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Talen Horton-Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	3.4	29.5	17.3	26.7	3.4	43.4	148.0
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +18.6%

LAL +15.3%

DEN -11.5%

LAL +25.0%

LAL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.8	14.2	133.0	137.8	109.6
season	15.0	14.2		112.0	111.8
opponent	14.4	14.5		106.2	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.3	15.6	18.8	14.8	16.0
LAL	15.3	16.5	16.3	15.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	45	44	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-5	7	16.3	15.7	0.57	17.1	14.6	2.53
Michael Porter Jr.	44	43	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.05	2	-5	7	16.2	15.8	0.40	17.1	14.6	2.48
Nikola Jokic	47	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	2	-7	16.3	15.7	0.66	16.6	15.0	1.61
Jamal Murray	46	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	4	-11	16.4	15.7	0.70	16.4	15.2	1.24
Torrey Craig	43	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.00	-9	6	-15	16.6	15.5	1.06	15.7	15.9	-0.12
PJ Dozier	51	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.41	2	-5	7	15.7	16.4	-0.67	15.3	16.5	-1.21
Monte Morris	45	45	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-7	11	15.7	16.4	-0.70	15.2	16.4	-1.24
Keita Bates-Diop	44	43	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.37	-1	-2	1	15.6	16.4	-0.79	15.2	16.4	-1.18
Mason Plumlee	47	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.46	0	-3	3	15.8	16.2	-0.40	15.0	16.7	-1.62
Bol Bol	43	42	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	0	-3	15.6	16.4	-0.84	14.5	17.0	-2.53

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Kuzma	62	62	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.50	16	-13	29	15.2	17.2	-2.00	16.5	15.1	1.35
Anthony Davis	71	72	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.43	13	-10	23	15.3	17.5	-2.19	16.2	15.4	0.76
Dion Waiters	52	53	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.41	5	-2	7	15.1	16.7	-1.58	16.2	15.8	0.44
Alex Caruso	37	37	0.52	-0.02	0.53	-0.10	21	-18	39	13.0	17.7	-4.71	17.9	14.7	3.15
Danny Green	57	58	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.38	-3	6	-9	16.6	14.5	2.08	14.9	18.0	-3.10
LeBron James	70	72	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.49	-10	13	-23	16.8	12.2	4.56	15.6	17.6	-2.03
Markieff Morris	35	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.02	-4	7	-11	14.8	16.4	-1.59	17.0	15.5	1.51
JaVale McGee	28	29	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	-0.01	-5	8	-13	18.1	14.7	3.40	15.9	16.1	-0.13
Talen Horton-Tucker	11	11	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.06	-8	11	-19	19.0	15.4	3.65	14.8	16.2	-1.37
Dwight Howard	27	27	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.07	-10	13	-23	16.8	15.4	1.45	14.6	16.6	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.52,0.74,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.28,0.31,0.22,0.23,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 90, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.15,0.42,1	93.1%
SAS 109, LAC 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.42,1	90.8%
NJN 80, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.26,1	90.7%