NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	109		Excitement	10.6 [49]		MVP	Chris Paul (LAC): +78.1%
Los Angeles Clippers	111		Comeback	4.7 [301]		LVP	Kawhi Leonard (SAS): -15.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Duncan	0.51	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.51	0.18	0.34	0.02	16	67%	0.51	0	0.00	8	62%	0.03
Manu Ginobili	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.02	0.12	0.00	5	62%	0.18	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Patty Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	6	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	56%	0.03	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Matt Bonner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01	0.11	-0.11	0.01	12	64%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Marco Belinelli	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,0,0,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	21	48%	0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.1	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	11	52%	0.02	3	-0.12	1	0%	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,-0.04,-0.16	-0.01	-0.14	0.01	13	46%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.23,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.26,0.78	0.78	0.24	0.55	0.00	13	90%	0.81	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.10
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.11	0.18	-0.03	13	63%	0.31	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.07	0.20	-0.01	11	64%	0.29	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	15	53%	0.14	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	54%	0.02	1	-0.03	9	33%	-0.12
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.06,-0.07	-0.07	0.05	-0.10	0.01	14	62%	0.06	4	-0.13	11	91%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	3.4	36.5	17.4	26.5	3.5	41.4	153.9
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAC +92.4%

LAC +4.7%

SAS -38.5%

SAS -7.2%

SAS -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAC	NBA	SAS	LAC	NBA
this game	16.2	14.9	15.1	117.2	120.7	104.2
season	15.4	14.6		106.9	110.5
opponent	15.3	14.9		104.6	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	18.3	13.5	16.2	17.4	16.2
LAC	14.3	13.6	16.5	15.4	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	37	39	0.21	-0.71	0.93	0.07	5	-7	12	15.0	17.0	-2.01	13.9	15.6	-1.77
Tiago Splitter	43	44	0.20	-0.70	0.90	-0.10	10	-12	22	16.4	16.1	0.30	15.5	14.3	1.25
Patty Mills	30	29	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-5	8	16.9	15.9	0.93	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Matt Bonner	0	1	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-2	2	0.0	16.2	-16.24	1.0	15.0	-14.04
Manu Ginobili	38	33	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	0	-2	16.9	15.8	1.07	13.4	15.7	-2.29
Danny Green	68	69	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.52	4	-6	10	15.6	18.0	-2.47	15.3	13.7	1.54
Kawhi Leonard	65	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.35	-6	4	-10	16.3	16.0	0.29	15.0	14.7	0.31
Boris Diaw	49	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.29	-9	7	-16	16.7	15.7	0.97	15.1	14.7	0.40
Tim Duncan	71	70	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.41	-7	5	-12	16.5	15.2	1.32	15.1	14.4	0.69
Tony Parker	64	64	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.43	-8	6	-14	16.1	16.6	-0.51	15.4	13.7	1.74

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	59	60	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.52	11	-9	20	14.7	15.2	-0.50	16.1	16.5	-0.48
Matt Barnes	53	54	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.57	8	-6	14	15.6	14.0	1.59	16.9	15.4	1.51
JJ Redick	82	82	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.59	3	-1	4	15.1	13.1	2.01	15.8	19.4	-3.55
Chris Paul	70	71	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.35	6	-4	10	15.0	14.5	0.57	16.4	15.9	0.49
Blake Griffin	75	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.51	0	2	-2	15.6	11.9	3.69	16.9	13.3	3.67
Hedo Turkoglu	6	6	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	2	-2	14.8	14.9	-0.06	15.3	16.3	-0.97
Glen Davis	23	23	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.10	-1	3	-4	14.0	15.2	-1.25	13.6	17.1	-3.55
Dahntay Jones	1	1	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	7	-12	0.0	15.1	-15.05	19.0	16.2	2.79
Austin Rivers	24	25	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.02	-7	9	-16	14.0	15.2	-1.15	16.0	16.3	-0.27
DeAndre Jordan	67	68	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.21	-5	7	-12	14.2	16.8	-2.57	16.5	15.5	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.68,0.59,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.29,0.34,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 90, MIL 94	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.48,0.57,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.15,0.42,1	92.7%
NJN 80, MIA 81	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.54,0.57,0.43,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.37,0.43,0.26,1	92.3%
NYK 81, MIA 82	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.36,0.35,0.46,0.48,0.37,0.33,0.42,1	91.6%