NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	119		Excitement	7.4 [367]		MVP	Jevon Carter (PHX): +35.9%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	2.2 [540]		LVP	Cameron Payne (PHX): -14.7%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jevon Carter	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.21	0.14	0.00	10	100%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Johnson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.14	0.05	0.01	6	100%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devin Booker	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17	0.16	0.02	0.02	26	61%	0.20	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Deandre Ayton	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.01	15	51%	0.10	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Dario Saric	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	71%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Ricky Rubio	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.04	-0.01	9	39%	0.09	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Mikal Bridges	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.02	11	38%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Frank Kaminsky	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cameron Payne	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	7	36%	-0.04	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.05	0.01	7	106%	0.23	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.05	0.09	-0.01	8	63%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Tyler Herro	0,0,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.04	0.01	16	69%	0.23	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.11	0.11	0.16	-0.02	0.03	15	68%	0.15	1	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	8	25%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	0.01	13	56%	0.07	5	-0.16	6	100%	0.03
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	12	37%	-0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.3	28.3	14.8	25.2	3.7	35.5	137.4
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +15.6%

PHX +4.6%

PHX +26.7%

PHX +2.8%

PHX +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	13.9	14.2	116.7	112.0	109.6
season	14.1	14.7		110.9	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.1		108.9	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.6	13.3	14.8	16.1	14.6
MIA	13.6	13.4	15.2	13.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jevon Carter	54	54	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.26	11	-4	15	14.9	14.3	0.61	13.6	14.2	-0.56
Mikal Bridges	80	80	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	5	-3	15.0	13.2	1.80	14.0	13.1	0.90
Deandre Ayton	78	76	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	1	5	14.5	15.0	-0.53	14.1	13.2	0.93
Cameron Payne	45	43	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.14	7	0	7	14.9	14.4	0.45	14.4	13.5	0.92
Devin Booker	76	73	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	8	-9	15.0	13.6	1.42	13.4	15.1	-1.70
Dario Saric	46	45	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	0	7	14.7	14.6	0.03	14.0	13.7	0.28
Ricky Rubio	62	63	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	8	-9	14.3	15.1	-0.76	13.8	14.0	-0.21
Cameron Johnson	61	59	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.06	7	0	7	13.8	15.9	-2.12	14.0	13.6	0.40
Frank Kaminsky	8	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	10	-13	13.9	14.7	-0.83	11.3	14.1	-2.78

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	63	65	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.26	5	-12	17	13.5	14.5	-0.98	15.1	13.9	1.17
Tyler Herro	73	76	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.32	3	-10	13	13.3	15.3	-2.00	15.2	13.0	2.15
Kelly Olynyk	47	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-1	-5	13.7	14.0	-0.36	14.1	15.1	-1.06
Gabe Vincent	44	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.02	-13	6	-19	13.9	13.8	0.11	13.0	15.8	-2.78
Solomon Hill	26	28	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	3	-13	14.5	13.7	0.80	14.1	14.8	-0.68
Duncan Robinson	78	80	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.13	-12	5	-17	14.0	13.4	0.59	14.6	14.7	-0.06
Andre Iguodala	64	63	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.20	-14	7	-21	14.3	13.0	1.32	14.9	14.2	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.65,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.5,0.48,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.65,0.65,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.32,0.31,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.28,0.16,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 87, MIL 84	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.6,0.48,0.52,0.37,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.43,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.04,0,0.01,0.08,0	92.5%
UTA 99, HOU 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.43,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.3%
POR 100, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.02,0	92.3%