NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	8.3 [241]		MVP	Kevin Love (CLE): +29.7%
Cleveland Cavaliers	104		Comeback	3.0 [142]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -28.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Harris	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15	0.16	0.00	0.02	8	100%	0.18	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Porter Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	6	58%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.03	-0.00	18	59%	0.13	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Monte Morris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.07
Paul Millsap	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.04	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jerami Grant	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.17	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.17	0.05	-0.21	0.01	14	61%	-0.09	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.15,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28	-0.11	-0.18	-0.01	11	35%	-0.19	4	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.24,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.16	0.15	0.01	17	69%	0.38	1	-0.08	5	80%	0.01
Cedi Osman	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	-0.01	0.00	12	80%	0.16	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	87%	0.17	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ante Zizic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Collin Sexton	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	0.01	19	62%	0.15	6	-0.19	2	100%	0.03
Larry Nance Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	7	57%	0.05	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.14	0.00	10	37%	-0.13	3	-0.10	4	25%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.8	23.3	15.4	28.6	2.4	28.3	124.9
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +59.4%

CLE +3.2%

CLE +12.2%

DEN -26.0%

CLE +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	16.0	14.0	14.2	107.4	107.2	109.6
season	15.0	15.1		112.0	106.3
opponent	13.8	14.5		114.2	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	16.5	14.8	18.7	16.0
CLE	14.3	14.8	13.5	13.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monte Morris	45	47	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.19	-3	1	-4	15.6	16.4	-0.84	13.1	14.8	-1.73
Jerami Grant	43	46	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-3	4	16.0	16.0	0.01	13.0	14.8	-1.78
Torrey Craig	15	17	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-4	6	15.5	16.1	-0.68	14.3	13.9	0.38
Mason Plumlee	34	35	0.02	-0.52	0.55	0.08	-2	0	-2	15.2	16.5	-1.35	12.0	15.1	-3.14
Michael Porter Jr.	32	31	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.16	-3	1	-4	17.2	15.5	1.73	12.0	14.9	-2.86
Jamal Murray	60	63	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.34	1	-3	4	15.9	16.2	-0.25	14.1	13.7	0.42
Will Barton	73	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-1	0	15.9	16.5	-0.66	14.4	12.8	1.58
Nikola Jokic	61	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.52	0	-2	2	16.5	15.2	1.35	15.1	12.0	3.14
Paul Millsap	52	51	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.48	-3	1	-4	16.0	16.0	-0.01	14.8	13.0	1.78
Gary Harris	60	60	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.63	-2	0	-2	16.2	15.8	0.38	15.0	12.4	2.59

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Love	73	72	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.39	11	-9	20	14.5	12.4	2.13	16.4	14.8	1.66
Collin Sexton	80	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.45	7	-5	12	14.2	12.9	1.33	16.3	14.7	1.63
Cedi Osman	79	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.50	5	-3	8	13.3	16.9	-3.64	16.0	16.3	-0.33
Tristan Thompson	76	74	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.45	-2	4	-6	14.2	13.0	1.25	15.7	17.1	-1.35
Matthew Dellavedova	65	61	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.46	-3	5	-8	13.5	15.0	-1.48	15.8	16.4	-0.58
Larry Nance Jr.	63	63	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	2	-2	13.7	14.6	-0.89	16.0	16.2	-0.27
Ante Zizic	8	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	4	-6	16.6	13.7	2.88	16.7	16.0	0.73
Alfonzo McKinnie	41	40	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.06	-6	8	-14	14.1	13.9	0.25	15.8	16.2	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.33,0.34,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.39,0.53,0.85,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 73, CLE 79	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.7,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.58,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.79,0.97,0.99,1	93.7%
TOR 91, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.57,0.55,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.57,0.66,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.46,0.62,0.71,0.96,0.98,1	91.3%
SAS 75, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.52,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.53,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.8,0.79,0.97,1,1	91.0%