NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	114		Excitement	9.4 [129]		MVP	Devonte' Graham (CHA): +36.9%
Charlotte Hornets	112		Comeback	5.3 [464]		LVP	Miles Bridges (CHA): -8.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0.32	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.05,0.32	0.05	0.25	-0.01	14	56%	0.36	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Will Barton	0.28	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.28	0.10	0.20	0.01	10	73%	0.30	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.09
Jerami Grant	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2	0.04	0.15	-0.02	9	55%	0.22	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Gary Harris	0.18	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.14	0.01	11	54%	0.18	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Monte Morris	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	8	83%	0.16	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,0,0.11,0.11	-0.07	0.17	-0.00	10	58%	0.29	6	-0.19	4	100%	0.05
Torrey Craig	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devonte' Graham	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.37	0.37	0.11	0.26	-0.00	15	69%	0.45	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.10
P.J. Washington	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.06,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.11	0.01	15	56%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.06
Willy Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.04	0.00	11	64%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	0.00	3	80%	0.15	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Jalen McDaniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	64%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.06	0.06	0.11	-0.04	0.01	13	68%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,-0.05,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.12	1	-0.15	8	75%	-0.11
Cody Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Miles Bridges	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	8	44%	-0.02	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	0.3	32.4	14.6	26.4	2.5	37.3	136.5
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +58.4%

CHA -6.4%

CHA -13.1%

DEN +11.0%

DEN +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CHA	NBA	DEN	CHA	NBA
this game	15.9	14.9	14.2	121.3	120.4	109.6
season	15.0	15.1		112.0	105.4
opponent	14.7	14.5		112.4	110.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.2	13.5	16.3	16.4	15.9
CHA	14.7	16.5	13.7	14.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	65	65	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.47	11	-9	20	16.0	15.6	0.33	15.4	14.0	1.40
Gary Harris	67	67	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.59	3	-1	4	15.3	17.2	-1.92	15.0	14.8	0.19
Jerami Grant	54	54	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.39	5	-3	8	16.1	15.5	0.65	14.6	15.4	-0.80
Nikola Jokic	57	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	0	2	15.7	16.0	-0.29	15.3	14.3	1.03
Monte Morris	48	48	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.13	8	-6	14	15.7	16.0	-0.38	15.4	14.4	0.97
Jamal Murray	68	68	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.34	-8	10	-18	16.4	14.4	2.03	14.5	16.2	-1.77
Mason Plumlee	37	34	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	16.0	15.7	0.29	14.3	15.3	-1.03
Paul Millsap	40	39	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	5	-8	15.5	16.1	-0.65	15.4	14.6	0.80
Torrey Craig	34	31	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.04	-8	10	-18	15.9	15.8	0.05	14.3	15.3	-1.03

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Miles Bridges	56	56	0.62	-1.12	1.74	0.03	20	-22	42	14.4	15.8	-1.48	15.6	16.2	-0.65
Willy Hernangomez	46	46	0.16	-0.66	0.81	0.13	1	-3	4	14.8	15.1	-0.24	15.3	16.4	-1.11
Jalen McDaniels	34	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	8	-18	15.8	14.5	1.34	15.9	15.8	0.01
Terry Rozier	66	68	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.44	5	-7	12	15.2	14.3	0.86	15.4	16.9	-1.48
Caleb Martin	27	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	6	-14	15.0	14.9	0.02	15.4	16.0	-0.60
Devonte' Graham	66	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.60	5	-7	12	14.6	15.9	-1.33	16.4	14.4	1.97
P.J. Washington	59	61	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.50	-6	4	-10	15.2	14.5	0.75	16.4	14.8	1.64
Cody Zeller	46	46	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.60	-5	3	-8	15.2	14.7	0.45	16.8	15.0	1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.45,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.7,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.55,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 82, LAC 74	0.5,0.5,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.56,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.68,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.81,0.79,0.65,0.78,0.62,0.63,0.34,0.09,0	90.1%
NOP 101, OKC 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.32,0.36,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.81,0.72,0.53,0.45,0.33,0.16,0	90.0%
CLE 104, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.6,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.86,0.87,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.72,0.32,0.16,0	90.0%