NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	102		Excitement	5.2 [730]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +24.6%
Orlando Magic	89		Comeback	1.2 [753]		LVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): -11.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.25,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.25,0.25	0.22	0.04	0.02	12	85%	0.25	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Meyers Leonard	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	14	64%	0.13	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	-0.00	15	62%	0.12	3	-0.04	9	89%	0.02
Duncan Robinson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Goran Dragic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	46%	-0.01	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
James Johnson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	8	20%	-0.07	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.01	0.03	16	66%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.02	0.02	20	56%	0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Mo Bamba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Khem Birch	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wes Iwundu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markelle Fultz	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	8	58%	0.02	4	-0.08	3	100%	0.02
Evan Fournier	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	13	40%	-0.02	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	0.02	11	26%	-0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.7	25.1	14.5	23.6	2.4	32.5	124.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.1%

MIA +1.8%

MIA +13.3%

ORL -6.8%

MIA +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	15.9	14.2	112.1	96.7	109.6
season	14.7	14.7		111.7	107.1
opponent	14.2	14.5		108.9	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	14.7	14.6	18.3	15.5
ORL	16.8	17.2	16.0	13.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	71	72	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.08	14	-1	15	15.6	15.1	0.55	15.9	16.2	-0.39
Jimmy Butler	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.06	13	0	13	15.6	15.3	0.25	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Goran Dragic	59	60	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	2	9	16.1	14.5	1.54	15.4	17.0	-1.57
Derrick Jones Jr.	52	53	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.06	9	4	5	15.8	15.1	0.74	15.3	16.8	-1.47
Meyers Leonard	56	55	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	7	-1	15.2	16.0	-0.81	16.7	14.9	1.76
Kendrick Nunn	32	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.08	2	11	-9	14.5	16.1	-1.54	17.0	15.4	1.57
James Johnson	29	31	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	16	-19	15.1	15.7	-0.62	16.2	15.8	0.37

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wes Iwundu	26	24	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-10	7	15.7	16.0	-0.35	14.5	15.9	-1.34
Khem Birch	32	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.02	-5	-8	3	17.0	15.4	1.57	14.9	15.8	-0.91
Mo Bamba	27	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	-6	-1	17.1	15.4	1.70	15.3	15.6	-0.31
Markelle Fultz	58	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	-3	-7	15.7	16.4	-0.79	15.7	15.2	0.48
Nikola Vucevic	65	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-7	1	15.4	17.1	-1.70	15.6	15.3	0.31
Aaron Gordon	65	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.11	-6	-7	1	15.4	17.1	-1.70	15.6	15.3	0.31
Evan Fournier	65	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-6	-1	16.0	15.7	0.29	15.7	15.0	0.68
Terrence Ross	59	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-4	-5	15.3	17.1	-1.83	15.8	15.0	0.88
Michael Carter-Williams	42	40	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	-6	-1	16.6	15.4	1.20	15.6	15.5	0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.39,0.27,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.12,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 108, PHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0	95.4%
SAS 113, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.36,0.46,0.33,0.4,0.26,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.15,0.17,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.02,0.03,0,0,0	95.2%
MIA 94, CLE 87	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.0%