NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	109		Excitement	6.8 [475]		MVP	Gordon Hayward (BOS): +17.1%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	1.2 [611]		LVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): -19.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0.17	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.08	0.08	14	76%	0.23	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.01
Brad Wanamaker	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	-0.00	5	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Theis	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.01	7	62%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jaylen Brown	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.05	16	74%	0.21	5	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Semi Ojeleye	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	78%	0.08	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Grant Williams	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	5	42%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kemba Walker	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	19	37%	-0.02	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	-0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	13	39%	-0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.02	6	62%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.00	14	59%	0.14	2	-0.06	11	91%	0.04
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.00	11	67%	0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.05	12	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	0.03	14	50%	0.03	3	-0.07	12	83%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.07	0.01	13	23%	-0.15	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	2.7	27.6	17.4	27.5	1.6	37.4	142.8
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +65.0%

MIA -8.4%

BOS +0.7%

MIA -6.9%

MIA -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	15.0	14.2	110.1	103.1	109.6
season	14.5	14.7		112.0	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.4		108.9	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.0	15.9	13.6	15.5	14.2
MIA	15.2	14.1	15.7	15.1	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jaylen Brown	84	81	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.22	13	-5	18	14.1	14.7	-0.55	15.5	12.9	2.61
Kemba Walker	77	78	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.23	9	-1	10	14.4	13.7	0.67	14.8	15.8	-1.02
Gordon Hayward	77	77	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	-2	12	13.9	15.1	-1.20	15.6	13.1	2.48
Daniel Theis	61	59	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.15	5	3	2	14.3	14.1	0.16	15.7	14.0	1.69
Grant Williams	49	48	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.15	5	3	2	14.7	13.7	0.97	14.0	16.0	-2.04
Marcus Smart	75	75	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.18	4	4	0	13.7	15.7	-1.93	15.5	13.5	1.98
Brad Wanamaker	30	30	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	5	-2	14.6	14.0	0.52	13.4	15.7	-2.32
Semi Ojeleye	42	42	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.21	-9	17	-26	14.5	14.0	0.52	14.1	15.7	-1.57

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	45	46	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.17	6	-14	20	14.2	15.7	-1.47	14.4	14.0	0.43
Chris Silva	19	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-2	-4	14.6	15.1	-0.51	16.2	13.7	2.42
Duncan Robinson	80	79	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.26	4	-12	16	15.1	14.8	0.32	14.1	14.5	-0.37
James Johnson	24	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-4	0	13.5	15.5	-2.04	14.6	14.1	0.50
Dion Waiters	37	37	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.31	3	-11	14	14.0	15.7	-1.63	15.4	13.5	1.96
Meyers Leonard	24	24	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	3	-14	16.7	14.5	2.21	11.8	15.0	-3.18
Goran Dragic	61	63	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-7	6	14.3	16.2	-1.84	14.9	13.0	1.89
Jimmy Butler	74	76	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.15	-7	-1	-6	15.8	12.7	3.03	13.8	15.6	-1.78
Tyler Herro	58	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	0.02	-20	12	-32	15.7	14.1	1.51	13.4	15.3	-1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.53,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 106, CHH 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.35,0.29,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.36,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.13,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.8%
NJN 99, MEM 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.38,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.15,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0,0	93.7%
UTA 109, ORL 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.36,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.4,0.46,0.22,0.25,0.13,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.4%