NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	105		Excitement	12.1 [18]		MVP	Tyler Herro (MIA): +99.0%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	4.6 [389]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIA): -47.1%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lauri Markkanen	0.31	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.31	0.13	0.20	0.02	15	69%	0.33	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.04
Kris Dunn	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.09	0.18	0.01	9	70%	0.30	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.04
Denzel Valentine	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.12	0.10	0.00	5	110%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thaddeus Young	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.01	10	57%	0.14	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.00	3	70%	0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Coby White	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	9	55%	0.17	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.01
Luke Kornet	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gafford	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Arcidiacono	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille Harrison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tomas Satoransky	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Zach LaVine	-0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.27,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.16,-0.21	-0.19	-0.03	-0.01	19	38%	0.05	7	-0.26	9	78%	0.13

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyler Herro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,0,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.51,0.71,0.99	0.99	0.09	0.92	0.01	22	59%	1.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Kendrick Nunn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.06	0.10	-0.01	11	69%	0.30	3	-0.13	4	100%	0.05
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.13	0.00	9	78%	0.38	7	-0.23	9	78%	-0.05
Duncan Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Silva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	4	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.13,-0.02,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.47	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.00	14	47%	-0.24	3	-0.23	21	81%	0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	29.8	14.7	24.8	1.8	43.8	1.8	18.0	164.2
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	2.3	15.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.9%

CHI -15.5%

MIA +52.3%

CHI -19.0%

CHI -4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	16.0	14.2	101.9	110.0	109.6
season	14.1	14.7		105.3	111.7
opponent	14.5	14.4		108.9	108.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
CHI	17.3	13.8	14.7	15.7	15.3	15.3
MIA	15.4	16.9	15.3	14.3	23.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wendell Carter Jr.	66	67	0.88	-1.38	2.27	0.35	18	-23	41	16.0	14.1	1.86	15.9	16.2	-0.26
Denzel Valentine	29	28	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.09	1	-6	7	16.0	15.1	0.98	15.0	16.4	-1.35
Ryan Arcidiacono	13	14	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-4	3	17.6	15.0	2.62	13.9	16.4	-2.50
Coby White	60	60	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.08	-4	-1	-3	15.7	14.9	0.81	16.2	15.8	0.39
Lauri Markkanen	73	71	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-4	3	15.2	15.7	-0.52	16.2	15.4	0.79
Daniel Gafford	4	5	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-2	-1	13.7	15.4	-1.64	10.0	16.3	-6.33
Tomas Satoransky	47	44	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-3	1	14.5	16.0	-1.55	15.4	16.5	-1.15
Luke Kornet	7	7	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	2	-9	14.0	15.4	-1.43	18.0	15.9	2.14
Shaquille Harrison	21	18	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.32	1	-6	7	13.6	15.8	-2.21	14.6	16.3	-1.77
Thaddeus Young	46	43	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	4	-13	15.2	15.5	-0.28	15.0	16.8	-1.81
Zach LaVine	78	76	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.47	-9	4	-13	15.0	16.5	-1.52	16.3	15.2	1.11
Kris Dunn	62	60	-0.90	0.40	-1.29	-0.78	-4	-1	-3	15.7	14.7	0.99	17.4	13.9	3.43

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bam Adebayo	80	81	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.45	9	-4	13	15.6	17.5	-1.92	15.1	16.0	-0.91
Tyler Herro	74	76	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.34	6	-1	7	17.0	13.3	3.65	15.5	15.0	0.50
Jimmy Butler	83	85	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.47	0	5	-5	15.9	16.6	-0.70	15.4	15.1	0.27
Kendrick Nunn	80	83	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.33	4	1	3	15.6	17.4	-1.80	15.8	13.4	2.33
Duncan Robinson	42	44	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	3	-1	15.5	16.4	-0.92	14.2	16.2	-1.93
Derrick Jones Jr.	49	51	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	-7	19	16.3	15.8	0.50	15.4	15.3	0.12
Chris Silva	17	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.01	-2	7	-9	16.8	15.9	0.91	15.6	15.3	0.37
Kelly Olynyk	47	48	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.18	1	4	-3	16.5	15.5	0.98	14.9	15.7	-0.85
Meyers Leonard	28	28	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	12	-19	15.0	16.4	-1.40	16.2	15.0	1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.38,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.58,0.55,0.41,0.41,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.43,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.29,0.22,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 109, MEM 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.72,1	89.2%
CLE 87, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.38,0.28,0.23,0.58,1	88.9%
MEM 97, NOK 100	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.34,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.45,0.32,0.58,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.32,0.42,1	88.8%