NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	125		Excitement	7.4 [371]		MVP	Trae Young (ATL): +26.0%
Denver Nuggets	121		Comeback	2.3 [124]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -9.1%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trae Young	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.26	0.21	0.07	0.02	21	79%	0.48	6	-0.22	11	73%	-0.01
Alex Len	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	-0.00	8	71%	0.19	2	-0.05	8	50%	-0.02
Kevin Huerter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	4	137%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Damian Jones	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Andre Hunter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Jabari Parker	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	-0.04	18	51%	0.07	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
DeAndre' Bembry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruno Fernando	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Cam Reddish	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	7	31%	-0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Tyrone Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	30%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.02	11	68%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.11	-0.01	0.00	16	62%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.00	9	53%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	87%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.03	0.00	11	61%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.07	0.05	-0.03	15	33%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.02	16	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	19	45%	-0.05	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	2.4	26.3	14.4	28.5	2.4	38.3	138.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +66.3%

DEN -7.7%

ATL +22.5%

DEN -34.0%

ATL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	DEN	NBA	ATL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.4	14.3	14.2	125.0	119.8	109.6
season	13.8	15.0		106.6	112.0
opponent	14.5	14.0		110.7	113.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	14.7	14.3	16.2	12.6	14.4
DEN	16.0	14.5	12.6	14.1	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jabari Parker	71	72	0.78	-0.28	1.05	0.31	16	-12	28	13.9	15.6	-1.75	13.8	15.3	-1.50
Alex Len	43	45	0.77	-0.27	1.04	0.24	18	-14	32	14.7	14.1	0.56	14.8	13.8	0.98
Trae Young	88	88	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	-3	10	14.5	13.8	0.62	13.9	16.8	-2.95
DeAndre' Bembry	62	62	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.39	5	-1	6	14.1	14.9	-0.83	14.5	13.9	0.58
De'Andre Hunter	84	83	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.40	-1	5	-6	14.2	15.5	-1.33	14.6	12.9	1.62
Kevin Huerter	33	34	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.07	8	-4	12	14.1	14.5	-0.43	14.6	14.1	0.56
Bruno Fernando	18	18	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.10	-5	9	-14	16.2	14.0	2.18	14.7	14.2	0.47
Cam Reddish	43	43	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.19	-12	16	-28	14.3	14.5	-0.18	13.7	14.7	-1.09
Tyrone Wallace	16	18	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	0.04	-9	13	-22	14.2	14.4	-0.15	15.6	14.0	1.62
Damian Jones	42	42	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.04	-7	11	-18	15.3	13.7	1.52	13.9	14.5	-0.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Murray	70	69	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.29	10	-14	24	14.0	15.0	-1.04	14.8	13.5	1.21
Mason Plumlee	35	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.04	-2	-2	0	15.5	13.6	1.94	14.5	14.3	0.16
Michael Porter Jr.	14	14	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.08	-6	2	-8	16.0	14.0	2.00	12.4	14.7	-2.27
Monte Morris	44	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.14	0	-4	4	15.1	13.6	1.52	14.3	14.4	-0.13
Torrey Craig	10	11	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.02	-8	4	-12	18.3	13.8	4.46	14.8	14.3	0.49
Jerami Grant	39	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	5	-14	15.0	13.8	1.14	13.7	14.7	-0.98
Paul Millsap	63	64	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.38	1	-5	6	13.7	15.3	-1.66	14.7	13.7	0.98
Gary Harris	88	86	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.34	-2	-2	0	13.7	18.5	-4.80	14.2	15.8	-1.63
Nikola Jokic	66	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.34	-2	-2	0	13.6	15.5	-1.94	14.3	14.5	-0.16
Will Barton	76	75	-0.58	0.08	-0.67	-0.53	-2	-2	0	14.1	14.8	-0.69	14.6	13.6	1.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.18,0.1,0.11,0.06,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 95, VAN 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.35,0.23,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.34,0.2,0.27,0.41,0.34,0.14,0.24,0.1,0.09,0,0	92.5%
MIN 80, SAS 71	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.39,0.31,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.18,0.27,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.15,0.27,0.18,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.18,0.25,0.07,0.02,0,0	92.0%
CHI 106, CLE 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.31,0.28,0.15,0.12,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.15,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.1,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	91.8%