NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	109		Excitement	8.0 [270]		MVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): +24.2%
Denver Nuggets	106		Comeback	6.1 [120]		LVP	Jerami Grant (DEN): -15.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dorian Finney-Smith	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.11	0.08	-0.01	7	86%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.12	0.07	0.00	9	78%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.07	0.07	0.00	8	63%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Justin Jackson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.01	0.00	4	125%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Brunson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.01	8	48%	0.12	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.06
Maxi Kleber	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	12	56%	0.14	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Seth Curry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	8	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Powell	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Luka Doncic	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19,-0.1	-0.12	0.02	-0.00	12	37%	0.04	4	-0.14	8	62%	-0.06
Kristaps Porzingis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.10	-0.04	14	34%	-0.10	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0.01,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.15	0.05	-0.03	17	66%	0.24	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.07	0.00	15	53%	0.16	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	3	58%	0.06	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Monte Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Torrey Craig	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.05	0.04	16	56%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,-0.02,-0.09	-0.09	0.06	-0.16	-0.01	13	57%	-0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14	-0.14	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	8	56%	0.04	4	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Jerami Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	5	0%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.0	28.5	15.4	27.4	2.4	36.3	134.1
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.4	134.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +39.6%

DAL +13.3%

DEN -21.2%

DAL +16.3%

DAL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	16.0	14.2	117.2	112.8	109.6
season	14.5	15.0		115.2	112.0
opponent	14.5	14.1		110.7	111.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.2	14.7	16.2	13.2	14.8
DEN	15.5	17.3	15.8	15.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Hardaway Jr.	47	45	0.84	-0.34	1.18	0.17	23	-20	43	13.7	15.8	-2.17	16.4	15.7	0.64
Delon Wright	50	49	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.38	14	-11	25	13.1	16.7	-3.66	15.7	16.4	-0.77
Jalen Brunson	32	31	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.19	20	-17	37	13.4	15.5	-2.05	16.6	15.8	0.80
Kristaps Porzingis	63	64	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.47	-3	6	-9	14.8	14.6	0.23	15.8	16.5	-0.62
Dorian Finney-Smith	46	47	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.37	-2	5	-7	14.8	14.7	0.02	15.8	16.3	-0.55
Maxi Kleber	59	59	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.25	1	2	-1	14.3	15.6	-1.27	15.9	16.3	-0.34
Dwight Powell	26	27	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	8	-13	16.2	14.2	2.05	16.1	16.0	0.15
Justin Jackson	36	37	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.11	-3	6	-9	15.7	14.2	1.54	16.8	15.5	1.27
Luka Doncic	61	63	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.22	-17	20	-37	15.5	13.4	2.05	15.8	16.6	-0.80
Seth Curry	45	48	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	0.03	-13	16	-29	16.6	13.0	3.67	16.1	15.9	0.21

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Barton	71	71	0.18	-0.68	0.86	-0.26	15	-18	33	15.9	16.6	-0.69	15.1	13.5	1.64
Paul Millsap	59	60	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.42	15	-18	33	15.7	16.6	-0.89	15.4	13.5	1.97
Nikola Jokic	62	63	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.45	15	-18	33	15.9	16.2	-0.31	15.5	13.2	2.29
Gary Harris	66	64	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.42	12	-15	27	15.5	17.3	-1.82	15.6	12.8	2.80
Jamal Murray	65	65	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.44	11	-14	25	15.7	16.8	-1.09	15.2	13.8	1.33
Monte Morris	29	28	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.03	-13	10	-23	16.8	15.7	1.09	13.8	15.2	-1.33
Malik Beasley	29	29	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.01	-16	13	-29	16.7	15.7	0.99	12.8	15.6	-2.80
Jerami Grant	35	33	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.05	-18	15	-33	16.6	15.7	0.89	13.5	15.4	-1.97
Mason Plumlee	32	30	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.01	-18	15	-33	16.2	15.9	0.31	13.2	15.5	-2.29
Torrey Craig	22	22	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.10	-18	15	-33	17.3	15.7	1.67	13.5	15.1	-1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.43,0.43,0.19,0.1,0.11,0.22,0.31,0.11,0.11,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 105, MIL 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.73,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.62,0.68,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.57,0.42,0.18,0.15,0.22,0.31,0.22,0.32,0.09,0	91.4%
UTA 102, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.68,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.48,0.43,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.12,0.06,0.02,0	90.5%
PHI 99, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.71,0.79,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.79,0.7,0.8,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.22,0.2,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.03,0.17,0	90.0%