NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	93		Excitement	5.8 [706]		MVP	Ish Smith (DET): +33.4%
Detroit Pistons	100		Comeback	36.7 [136]		LVP	Tyler Dorsey (MEM): -25.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jevon Carter	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.10	-0.02	0.02	4	112%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.05	-0.03	10	54%	0.11	3	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Bruno Caboclo	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	13	56%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ivan Rabb	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	6	64%	0.07	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Julian Washburn	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	1	150%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justin Holiday	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	7	65%	0.09	3	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Chandler Parsons	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	8	50%	0.01	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Dorsey	-0.26	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.25,-0.26,-0.26	-0.08	-0.20	-0.02	12	46%	-0.13	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.04

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.33	0.33	0.10	0.25	0.02	15	63%	0.35	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.01	11	68%	0.17	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.04	0.02	5	80%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	59%	0.16	3	-0.14	12	67%	0.03
Blake Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	8	39%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Glenn Robinson III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	16	37%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	11	26%	-0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	1.7	26.3	14.4	28.6	2.6	34.5	132.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +12.1%

DET +13.3%

DET +1.9%

DET +25.8%

MEM -3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	DET	NBA	MEM	DET	NBA
this game	15.2	16.2	14.3	101.1	108.7	109.3
season	15.4	15.3		105.4	107.5
opponent	14.0	14.2		109.0	107.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.1	14.7	16.0	16.8	15.2
DET	18.7	15.3	14.7	16.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Julian Washburn	21	20	0.36	-0.86	1.21	-0.14	17	-24	41	16.9	14.6	2.27	20.1	15.1	5.04
Jevon Carter	33	35	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.26	7	-14	21	15.4	15.0	0.38	17.9	15.1	2.84
Tyler Zeller	36	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.11	0	-7	7	14.8	15.4	-0.62	17.3	15.3	2.03
Bruno Caboclo	54	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.04	-12	5	-17	13.6	17.4	-3.87	14.9	18.1	-3.26
Chandler Parsons	54	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.41	1	-8	9	16.4	13.4	2.90	16.6	15.6	1.02
Tyler Dorsey	67	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	4	-15	14.2	17.8	-3.64	15.9	16.9	-1.05
Ivan Rabb	56	54	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.18	-7	0	-7	15.4	14.8	0.62	15.3	17.3	-2.03
Justin Holiday	69	69	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	4	-15	15.6	13.8	1.77	15.6	18.0	-2.41
Delon Wright	74	73	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.16	-23	16	-39	14.8	16.4	-1.61	15.4	19.1	-3.72

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wayne Ellington	74	75	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.16	22	-15	37	15.2	20.2	-4.99	14.9	16.2	-1.33
Andre Drummond	75	74	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.24	17	-10	27	15.9	17.2	-1.26	14.9	16.3	-1.47
Ish Smith	45	46	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.46	5	2	3	17.5	14.9	2.62	16.6	13.7	2.87
Luke Kennard	52	52	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	2	3	17.2	14.8	2.44	16.5	13.4	3.01
Bruce Brown	37	37	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.28	7	0	7	15.3	16.7	-1.48	14.4	15.7	-1.34
Langston Galloway	48	48	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	5	-3	16.9	15.3	1.64	15.6	14.7	0.95
Glenn Robinson III	19	17	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	-0.09	1	6	-5	15.3	16.4	-1.12	14.4	15.3	-0.91
Reggie Jackson	47	46	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	-0.17	2	5	-3	14.9	17.5	-2.62	13.7	16.6	-2.87
Zaza Pachulia	14	14	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	13	-19	15.8	16.2	-0.43	13.6	15.4	-1.86
Thon Maker	12	13	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.08	-10	17	-27	20.8	15.4	5.38	18.1	14.7	3.41
Blake Griffin	37	38	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.02	-10	17	-27	16.0	16.2	-0.21	14.5	15.6	-1.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.15,0.12,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.12,0.2,0.23,0.36,0.59,0.6,0.39,0.45,0.77,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, LAL 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.32,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.14,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.24,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.78,0.85,1	90.9%
LAC 118, WAS 125	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.15,0.09,0.13,0.15,0.26,0.21,0.25,0.28,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.47,0.72,0.85,0.99,1	90.9%
MIN 100, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.22,0.17,0.22,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.21,0.14,0.15,0.36,0.35,0.54,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.98,1	90.3%