NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	8.5 [247]		MVP	Dario Saric (MIN): +12.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	111		Comeback	2.9 [321]		LVP	Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN): -27.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Johnson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.03	-0.00	11	68%	0.16	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.02	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0.04	0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.09,0.04	0.10	-0.04	0.02	17	61%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.04
Rodney McGruder	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.03	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	15	43%	-0.00	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12	0.01	-0.10	0.02	13	52%	-0.07	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.02
Dwyane Wade	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12	0.05	-0.17	0.00	16	62%	0.02	3	-0.14	7	100%	0.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dario Saric	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.02	0.02	10	76%	0.17	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.00	15	56%	0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	11	55%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.03	0.01	12	67%	0.20	3	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	5	54%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Cameron Reynolds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	75%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	50%	0.07	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Keita Bates-Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	9	45%	0.05	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	7	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.28	-0.28	-0.17	-0.10	0.01	10	59%	0.11	11	-0.38	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.7	26.4	15.5	26.0	1.0	30.0	125.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +29.9%

MIN +16.7%

MIN +26.8%

MIA -23.1%

MIA -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	14.0	14.4	14.3	107.9	108.8	109.3
season	14.8	14.4		106.3	110.2
opponent	14.0	14.3		111.8	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	12.9	12.6	16.3	14.9	14.0
MIN	12.4	14.1	15.0	16.4	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney McGruder	23	23	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.04	10	-12	22	12.0	14.6	-2.66	13.1	14.7	-1.65
Hassan Whiteside	34	34	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.16	5	-7	12	14.1	13.9	0.21	14.1	14.5	-0.32
Dwyane Wade	60	61	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.42	13	-15	28	13.8	14.2	-0.39	14.7	13.8	0.89
James Johnson	57	56	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.24	3	-5	8	14.8	13.0	1.75	14.9	13.7	1.18
Kelly Olynyk	39	40	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	6	-14	13.5	14.3	-0.85	13.4	15.0	-1.63
Bam Adebayo	67	68	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	5	-12	13.9	14.1	-0.21	14.5	14.1	0.32
Justise Winslow	78	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.30	-7	5	-12	14.0	14.0	0.01	13.9	16.1	-2.26
Goran Dragic	81	81	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.45	-4	2	-6	14.0	13.8	0.20	14.5	13.9	0.64
Dion Waiters	66	67	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.38	-15	13	-28	14.5	13.1	1.33	15.0	13.1	1.99

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Wiggins	78	75	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.42	15	-13	28	13.6	16.8	-3.18	14.3	13.1	1.26
Dario Saric	62	61	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-7	16	14.0	14.8	-0.80	14.1	13.9	0.14
Tyus Jones	66	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.33	4	-2	6	14.5	14.1	0.43	13.5	14.9	-1.32
Keita Bates-Diop	52	52	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.50	-6	8	-14	14.9	13.8	1.03	13.7	14.4	-0.69
Karl-Anthony Towns	61	61	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	-4	10	14.5	14.1	0.36	13.9	14.2	-0.27
Josh Okogie	48	47	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.07	6	-4	10	14.1	14.6	-0.41	14.0	14.0	0.06
Anthony Tolliver	35	34	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.17	-4	6	-10	13.9	14.6	-0.64	14.1	13.9	0.21
Jerryd Bayless	36	36	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	4	-6	14.1	14.5	-0.43	14.9	13.5	1.32
Gorgui Dieng	46	46	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.24	-7	9	-16	14.9	13.9	1.00	14.0	14.0	-0.06
Cameron Reynolds	26	28	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	0.00	-11	13	-24	16.0	13.8	2.20	13.7	14.1	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 98, ATL 106	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.33,0.25,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.5,0.62,0.53,0.57,0.77,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	93.5%
POR 121, GSW 125	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.3,0.39,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.68,0.79,0.84,0.86,0.62,0.93,0.85,0.84,1	92.6%
OKC 109, HOU 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.37,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.48,0.42,0.43,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.69,0.84,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.98,0.96,1	92.5%