NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	110		Excitement	5.6 [750]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +15.9%
San Antonio Spurs	105		Comeback	1.1 [474]		LVP	DeMar DeRozan (SAS): -23.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.00	0.00	13	76%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
James Johnson	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.04	0.00	8	81%	0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Dwyane Wade	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.03	13	42%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	57%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	4	75%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0	0.03	-0.03	0.00	14	60%	0.05	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	16	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Jones Jr.	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	7	31%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	12	63%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.00	0.04	13	65%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	10	68%	0.09	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.04
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	9	44%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.06,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.04	0.01	13	54%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Derrick White	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	8	18%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.11,-0.07,-0.17,-0.24	-0.24	-0.02	-0.18	0.04	12	53%	-0.01	3	-0.22	6	67%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	30.3	15.4	27.0	1.8	30.0	129.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.4%

SAS -0.9%

MIA +1.2%

MIA +12.1%

SAS -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	14.3	114.6	109.4	109.3
season	14.8	14.8		106.3	111.7
opponent	14.4	14.3		110.4	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.8	11.6	16.8	19.8	15.3
SAS	15.7	16.1	13.9	13.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick Jones Jr.	63	63	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.32	14	-9	23	15.1	15.6	-0.51	15.2	13.8	1.48
Dion Waiters	63	63	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.19	16	-11	27	15.3	15.2	0.18	15.7	13.0	2.68
Bam Adebayo	57	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-8	21	15.3	15.2	0.11	15.3	13.9	1.44
Josh Richardson	80	78	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.38	0	5	-5	15.3	15.2	0.03	14.3	16.4	-2.04
Kelly Olynyk	38	39	0.21	0.29	-0.09	-0.06	9	-4	13	15.7	15.0	0.64	15.4	14.3	1.15
James Johnson	54	55	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.20	-4	9	-13	14.8	15.8	-1.00	14.3	15.3	-1.03
Goran Dragic	44	46	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	9	-13	14.9	15.6	-0.67	14.4	15.0	-0.65
Dwyane Wade	42	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.24	-9	14	-23	16.0	14.7	1.34	13.3	15.8	-2.46
Hassan Whiteside	39	39	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.15	-10	15	-25	15.2	15.3	-0.11	13.9	15.3	-1.44

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marco Belinelli	45	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.48	15	-20	35	13.1	16.2	-3.09	15.4	15.2	0.24
Jakob Poeltl	28	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-3	1	14.6	14.8	-0.17	12.8	16.4	-3.59
Patty Mills	59	57	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.38	9	-14	23	13.8	16.1	-2.29	15.3	15.3	0.02
Davis Bertans	46	46	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.12	0	-5	5	13.8	15.6	-1.78	14.0	16.4	-2.36
Bryn Forbes	57	58	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-1	-3	15.0	14.4	0.62	16.1	14.0	2.06
Rudy Gay	64	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-4	3	15.4	13.5	1.89	15.4	15.0	0.37
Derrick White	38	39	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.07	-16	11	-27	15.8	14.0	1.80	15.3	15.3	-0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	76	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.23	-10	5	-15	15.2	12.8	2.42	16.2	11.9	4.26
DeMar DeRozan	66	67	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.19	-16	11	-27	15.3	13.4	1.88	15.3	15.2	0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.34,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.26,0.3,0.32,0.2,0.23,0.19,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.23,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, TOR 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.19,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.17,0.15,0.28,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.02,0	94.2%
ORL 106, ATL 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0	94.1%
PHI 126, NYK 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.04,0,0,0	94.0%