NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	106		Excitement	4.4 [941]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (ORL): +13.2%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	1.1 [623]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -16.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.13	0.06	0.03	-0.04	11	62%	0.17	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	12	62%	0.11	4	-0.06	13	54%	-0.03
JJ Redick	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.00	7	79%	0.07	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	12	65%	0.10	3	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	2	150%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.03	10	55%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	14	44%	0.01	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.02

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.00	0.03	4	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	9	64%	0.07	3	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	0.06	0.01	0.06	15	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05
Randolph Morris	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	11	53%	-0.01	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	8	53%	0.04	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	17	45%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	17	34%	-0.13	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.1	2.7	28.2	16.7	27.2	2.4	36.2	142.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +29.5%

ORL +11.3%

ORL +11.5%

ATL -4.4%

ORL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	ATL	NBA	ORL	ATL	NBA
this game	16.3	13.3	15.5	109.3	104.1	106.4
season	15.3	15.8		107.3	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.8		106.0	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.9	16.1	17.6	16.5	16.3
ATL	14.5	15.2	12.4	11.2	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jameer Nelson	70	71	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.16	16	-12	28	15.2	19.1	-3.94	14.2	10.9	3.26
Dwight Howard	81	80	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.29	10	-6	16	15.5	20.2	-4.77	14.3	8.7	5.59
Courtney Lee	75	75	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-7	18	15.8	18.0	-2.24	13.6	12.1	1.51
Rashard Lewis	77	78	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.32	4	0	4	16.4	15.6	0.78	13.1	14.0	-0.96
Hedo Turkoglu	75	76	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	0	4	16.0	17.3	-1.36	13.8	11.4	2.48
Tony Battie	23	24	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	0	4	16.3	16.3	0.05	14.3	13.0	1.33
Marcin Gortat	16	18	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	10	-16	20.2	15.5	4.77	8.7	14.3	-5.59
JJ Redick	41	41	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.23	-11	15	-26	17.4	15.4	2.03	11.4	14.6	-3.26
Anthony Johnson	27	27	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.22	-12	16	-28	19.1	15.2	3.94	10.9	14.2	-3.26

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randolph Morris	13	13	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-6	8	11.5	13.6	-2.10	16.1	16.3	-0.22
Maurice Evans	48	47	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.27	10	-14	24	12.1	14.4	-2.23	18.3	14.3	3.98
Solomon Jones	21	21	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.18	6	-10	16	12.5	13.5	-1.03	20.1	15.2	4.95
Ronald Murray	47	46	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.36	12	-16	28	11.6	14.8	-3.25	18.7	14.1	4.62
Marvin Williams	73	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.23	-7	3	-10	12.9	14.5	-1.60	15.7	17.9	-2.17
Mike Bibby	76	76	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.06	-15	11	-26	13.6	12.0	1.60	15.1	20.6	-5.55
Josh Smith	72	71	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	3	-10	14.3	10.3	4.00	16.0	17.1	-1.16
Al Horford	64	63	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.17	-12	8	-20	13.9	12.1	1.83	15.0	18.6	-3.57
Joe Johnson	76	76	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.32	-9	5	-14	14.1	10.5	3.53	15.6	18.9	-3.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.38,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 91, CHI 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0	95.5%
MIN 113, GSW 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	95.4%
PHI 126, NYK 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.15,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.05,0.04,0,0,0	95.0%