NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Excitement	3.7 [1046]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +14.9%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	1.0 [916]		LVP	Joe Smith (GSW): -17.0%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.00	0.01	15	80%	0.18	2	-0.03	11	82%	0.01
Tom Gugliotta	0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.02	17	79%	0.21	3	-0.06	5	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0.09	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	8	72%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Cherokee Parks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mitchell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.04	9	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.02	-0.06	9	54%	0.01	5	-0.08	8	62%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	10	62%	0.07	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	11	63%	0.03	2	-0.03	5	60%	-0.01
Melvin Booker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	4	40%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	6	54%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.03	13	71%	0.07	5	-0.08	2	100%	0.00
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	10	59%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.04	0.04	18	52%	-0.06	6	-0.11	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.7	2.4	24.5	15.8	27.4	1.6	38.0	131.4
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +36.0%

MIN +3.0%

GSW -1.9%

MIN +10.5%

MIN +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	GSW	NBA	MIN	GSW	NBA
this game	13.8	15.5	15.6	113.0	105.2	104.4
season	15.5	15.0		103.3	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.5		109.1	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.9	13.0	14.5	12.1	13.8
GSW	16.1	14.8	16.1	15.1	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Garnett	91	88	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.03	18	-7	25	13.4	17.9	-4.52	15.6	14.1	1.51
Stephon Marbury	76	72	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.08	12	-1	13	13.6	14.3	-0.67	15.8	14.6	1.19
Dean Garrett	63	64	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	0	11	14.4	12.8	1.62	15.9	14.7	1.15
Doug West	70	67	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	0	11	13.4	14.8	-1.41	16.2	13.9	2.34
Tom Gugliotta	75	73	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	7	-3	15.1	9.8	5.31	16.0	13.9	2.14
Sam Mitchell	54	51	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.30	-6	17	-23	12.8	15.0	-2.18	14.5	16.6	-2.10
Terry Porter	52	51	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.15	-1	12	-13	13.4	14.2	-0.78	14.1	17.0	-2.88
Cherokee Parks	12	11	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	8	-5	14.7	13.6	1.10	15.4	15.5	-0.14
James Robinson	7	8	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	8	-5	14.3	13.7	0.54	12.4	15.8	-3.39

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	58	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.24	2	-13	15	16.0	14.8	1.20	14.7	12.4	2.26
Scott Burrell	13	14	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.03	-8	-3	-5	12.9	15.9	-2.96	13.0	13.9	-0.91
Donyell Marshall	33	33	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.11	-12	1	-13	15.3	15.6	-0.32	15.4	13.0	2.45
Chris Mullin	77	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-10	9	15.3	16.3	-1.09	13.0	16.7	-3.71
Felton Spencer	29	30	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.10	-14	3	-17	16.6	15.0	1.62	15.6	13.0	2.60
Joe Smith	79	81	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-5	-1	15.9	13.6	2.37	14.0	12.7	1.29
Latrell Sprewell	89	92	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.22	-6	-5	-1	15.7	12.6	3.12	13.7	14.2	-0.51
Mark Price	65	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.14	-20	9	-29	14.8	16.9	-2.07	12.4	16.5	-4.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 97, PHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
MIA 90, CLE 65	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.27,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.08,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
CHI 105, PHI 89	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.9%