NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	112		Excitement	9.0 [173]		MVP	Gordon Hayward (BOS): +47.4%
Philadelphia 76ers	109		Comeback	2.8 [193]		LVP	Tobias Harris (PHI): -21.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordon Hayward	0.47	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.57,0.47	0.23	0.25	0.00	11	100%	0.59	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Al Horford	0.25	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.25	0.13	0.12	-0.00	16	68%	0.28	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.05
Jayson Tatum	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15	0.06	0.13	0.04	15	57%	0.18	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Marcus Morris	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.04	0.01	13	61%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Daniel Theis	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jaylen Brown	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.00	8	39%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brad Wanamaker	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.05	-0.00	8	31%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.24,-0.22,-0.16	-0.14	-0.04	-0.02	14	25%	-0.15	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.33	0.33	0.14	0.19	0.01	12	65%	0.35	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.12
Ben Simmons	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	-0.01	9	64%	0.20	3	-0.10	7	29%	-0.13
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	117%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	11	62%	0.14	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Joel Embiid	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.18,0.18,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.07	0.04	22	48%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.03
T.J. McConnell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	6	75%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.05	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Furkan Korkmaz	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	14	33%	-0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.7	25.2	16.3	28.3	2.8	42.2	143.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +55.9%

PHI -24.0%

PHI -11.4%

BOS +18.9%

BOS +10.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	PHI	NBA	BOS	PHI	NBA
this game	15.0	14.9	14.3	115.5	113.5	109.3
season	13.9	14.0		109.9	110.9
opponent	14.1	14.7		108.1	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.2	14.4	15.0	16.5	15.0
PHI	16.5	14.4	13.8	14.8	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	59	58	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.36	11	-8	19	13.5	17.3	-3.84	15.4	14.0	1.43
Marcus Morris	69	67	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.20	8	-5	13	15.7	13.3	2.33	14.3	16.1	-1.73
Jaylen Brown	48	48	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.29	3	0	3	13.9	16.1	-2.23	15.6	14.2	1.40
Marcus Smart	67	66	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.43	-3	6	-9	15.0	14.9	0.16	14.8	15.0	-0.20
Jayson Tatum	70	71	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	3	-3	15.3	14.0	1.31	14.4	16.3	-1.97
Al Horford	75	71	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.25	2	1	1	14.9	15.1	-0.14	14.2	16.8	-2.62
Daniel Theis	22	25	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.16	1	2	-1	15.1	14.9	0.14	16.8	14.2	2.62
Terry Rozier	61	60	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	-0.00	-1	4	-5	16.6	12.2	4.43	14.8	15.0	-0.22
Brad Wanamaker	14	14	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	9	-15	12.6	15.4	-2.73	15.9	14.7	1.16

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Scott	27	29	0.05	-0.55	0.61	-0.09	5	-8	13	15.4	14.7	0.76	14.1	15.4	-1.30
Jonathon Simmons	28	29	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-1	-1	15.8	14.5	1.35	16.1	14.5	1.65
Boban Marjanovic	21	20	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-1	-1	15.4	14.7	0.66	15.4	14.9	0.59
Furkan Korkmaz	21	22	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	5	-13	16.2	14.5	1.70	14.7	15.1	-0.33
Ben Simmons	71	70	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.26	1	-4	5	14.2	16.6	-2.40	15.8	12.8	3.05
JJ Redick	71	69	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.50	8	-11	19	14.2	16.8	-2.67	15.0	15.0	-0.08
T.J. McConnell	25	27	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	1	-5	16.6	14.2	2.40	12.8	15.8	-3.05
Joel Embiid	75	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.43	3	-6	9	14.7	15.4	-0.66	15.0	14.9	0.16
Jimmy Butler	72	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.42	-4	1	-5	14.8	15.1	-0.29	14.6	16.1	-1.51
Tobias Harris	69	69	-0.63	0.13	-0.77	-0.28	-12	9	-21	14.7	15.4	-0.76	15.2	14.5	0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.3,0.37,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.67,0.74,0.65,0.55,0.57,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.31,0.46,0.18,0.19,0.11,0.55,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, PHI 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.32,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.55,0.52,0.41,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.34,0.17,0.26,0.36,0.33,0.16,0	91.1%
SAC 113, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.26,0.24,0.14,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.15,0.33,0.05,0	90.6%
MEM 96, CHA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.08,0	90.4%