NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	113		Excitement	7.8 [265]		MVP	Kevin Gamble (SAC): +30.1%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	2.7 [220]		LVP	Corliss Williamson (SAC): -12.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Gamble	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.20	0.11	0.00	13	88%	0.32	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0.08	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	28	58%	0.18	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.00
Olden Polynice	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07	0.01	0.03	-0.03	12	54%	0.07	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.01	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Lionel Simmons	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Salvadori	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Grayer	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.04	-0.06	19	48%	0.05	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	7	45%	-0.05	2	-0.08	8	50%	-0.05

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Pierce	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	0.00	10	79%	0.17	2	-0.06	9	100%	0.06
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	5	64%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.06
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.07	0.00	24	53%	-0.00	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	13	47%	-0.02	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.06
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	31%	-0.09	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,0,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.09	-0.00	17	55%	-0.02	2	-0.08	8	87%	0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	28.3	15.6	24.6	2.3	33.7	133.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +76.3%

DEN -21.8%

SAC +18.2%

DEN -9.8%

DEN -12.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	DEN	NBA	SAC	DEN	NBA
this game	16.0	15.3	15.6	122.8	116.3	104.4
season	15.4	15.2		102.4	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.4		108.8	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.0	17.1	16.8	16.4	16.0
DEN	14.8	15.6	13.8	17.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Gamble	59	57	0.80	-0.30	1.11	0.16	22	-16	38	14.9	18.0	-3.12	16.0	14.2	1.74
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	85	85	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.25	13	-7	20	15.9	17.7	-1.86	14.9	19.7	-4.77
Olden Polynice	88	88	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.34	5	1	4	16.0	16.7	-0.78	14.8	25.5	-10.66
Mitch Richmond	74	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.18	7	-1	8	15.8	16.8	-1.04	15.0	16.4	-1.34
Corliss Williamson	57	58	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	7	-8	16.2	15.7	0.46	15.6	14.9	0.67
Michael Smith	54	55	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.01	4	2	2	16.3	15.6	0.76	14.9	15.9	-1.03
Kevin Salvadori	4	4	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	5	-4	16.7	16.0	0.78	25.5	14.8	10.66
Jeff Grayer	22	24	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.27	-9	15	-24	17.6	15.5	2.15	16.2	15.0	1.22
Duane Causwell	6	5	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	9	-12	15.7	16.0	-0.36	12.6	15.5	-2.86
Lionel Simmons	4	4	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	8	-10	21.0	15.8	5.23	11.0	15.5	-4.50
Tyus Edney	7	7	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	13	-20	17.7	15.9	1.86	19.7	14.9	4.77

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ervin Johnson	29	31	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.09	8	-14	22	14.6	15.7	-1.10	16.4	15.8	0.54
Ricky Pierce	51	51	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-9	12	14.6	16.1	-1.47	16.8	15.0	1.85
Tom Hammonds	56	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	5	-16	14.9	15.9	-0.91	15.6	16.6	-1.09
Brooks Thompson	46	46	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	16.4	14.2	2.17	15.0	17.0	-2.09
LaPhonso Ellis	76	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.22	-5	-1	-4	15.5	14.2	1.35	16.4	13.9	2.57
Mark Jackson	85	85	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-2	-2	14.9	20.7	-5.86	16.0	15.6	0.46
Antonio McDyess	52	51	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.34	-2	-4	2	15.4	15.2	0.14	16.6	15.2	1.41
Dale Ellis	65	65	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.29	-12	6	-18	16.0	13.7	2.21	15.2	17.9	-2.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.28,0.34,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.26,0.24,0.14,0.27,0.22,0.24,0.33,0.19,0.15,0.33,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 112, PHX 106	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.46,0.4,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.15,0.07,0.01,0.02,0	91.8%
LAL 93, UTA 87	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.64,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.2,0.1,0.18,0.34,0.27,0.15,0.07,0.06,0,0	91.7%
MEM 96, CHA 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.68,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.3,0.18,0.15,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.22,0.08,0	91.6%