NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	118		Excitement	6.4 [581]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +31.4%
Portland Trail Blazers	108		Comeback	1.0 [623]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -17.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.31	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.24	0.12	0.04	12	90%	0.33	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
James Johnson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17	0.04	0.11	-0.02	11	62%	0.20	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Dion Waiters	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	5	90%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	17	58%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Josh Richardson	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.12	0.00	0.04	9	75%	0.08	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	62%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.05	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.03	14	33%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	7	29%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.28,0.28	0.28	0.17	0.10	-0.00	25	66%	0.32	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jake Layman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.18	-0.04	-0.00	17	71%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.01	7	44%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Seth Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	9	37%	0.00	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.00	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Zach Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.10	-0.08	-0.00	15	41%	-0.03	4	-0.15	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	3.5	24.6	16.6	26.3	2.4	32.2	132.4
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +23.4%

MIA +5.2%

MIA +10.5%

MIA +6.9%

MIA +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	14.4	14.2	14.3	116.8	108.0	109.3
season	14.8	14.9		106.3	112.6
opponent	13.9	14.3		109.4	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	13.5	14.4	14.0	15.7	14.4
POR	14.7	14.4	14.8	13.1	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	64	62	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.17	16	-6	22	14.8	13.7	1.15	13.8	14.9	-1.12
Justise Winslow	75	74	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.13	17	-7	24	14.5	14.1	0.44	14.2	14.4	-0.23
Tyler Johnson	62	59	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.11	13	-3	16	15.1	13.3	1.75	14.1	14.5	-0.40
James Johnson	56	56	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.14	6	4	2	13.9	15.1	-1.19	14.1	14.5	-0.37
Josh Richardson	71	72	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	6	-2	14.7	13.6	1.15	14.0	15.0	-0.99
Kelly Olynyk	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	1	8	15.1	13.9	1.16	14.5	14.1	0.44
Dwyane Wade	60	60	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.22	-6	16	-22	14.0	15.0	-1.04	14.4	14.0	0.38
Dion Waiters	39	38	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.05	-3	13	-16	13.2	15.2	-2.00	14.9	13.9	1.00
Bam Adebayo	37	38	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.03	-6	16	-22	13.7	14.8	-1.15	14.9	13.8	1.12

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Seth Curry	32	32	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.02	4	-14	18	14.6	14.1	0.55	14.4	14.4	-0.05
Zach Collins	19	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.01	-1	-9	8	15.7	13.9	1.84	11.1	15.1	-4.01
Meyers Leonard	49	49	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-11	12	15.3	13.3	2.03	13.8	15.0	-1.18
Al-Farouq Aminu	35	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-4	-2	13.7	14.5	-0.82	15.4	13.9	1.53
Jusuf Nurkic	47	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.03	-9	-1	-8	13.4	15.0	-1.52	15.3	13.6	1.71
Evan Turner	55	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.21	-3	-7	4	14.9	13.4	1.46	13.9	15.0	-1.03
Maurice Harkless	38	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	0	-10	14.1	14.4	-0.28	15.8	13.5	2.30
Jake Layman	68	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-6	2	14.1	14.5	-0.32	13.8	15.7	-1.88
CJ McCollum	84	84	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	-4	-2	13.6	17.4	-3.79	15.1	10.9	4.17
Damian Lillard	73	75	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.17	-16	6	-22	14.2	14.5	-0.32	13.9	15.8	-1.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.3,0.21,0.23,0.27,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.21,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.23,0.29,0.29,0.39,0.32,0.11,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 95, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.28,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.24,0.34,0.23,0.07,0.07,0.08,0	94.0%
BOS 101, CHI 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.29,0.18,0.3,0.27,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.11,0.16,0.1,0.08,0	93.9%
POR 96, MIN 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.24,0.17,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.17,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.12,0.21,0.2,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.03,0.02,0	93.7%