NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	108		Excitement	5.9 [677]		MVP	Donovan Mitchell (UTA): +22.5%
Utah Jazz	114		Comeback	1.1 [993]		LVP	Paul Millsap (DEN): -14.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.01	13	79%	0.22	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Monte Morris	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.00	4	125%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	21	57%	0.17	3	-0.08	7	100%	0.02
Gary Harris	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	73%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Trey Lyles	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	13	46%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juancho Hernangomez	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	11	36%	0.00	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Torrey Craig	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	8	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.02
Paul Millsap	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.03	-0.00	8	12%	-0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Donovan Mitchell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.14	0.05	-0.04	25	59%	0.29	2	-0.07	9	56%	-0.01
Rudy Gobert	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.07	-0.03	11	48%	0.14	0	0.00	9	78%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.02	10	74%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.02	-0.03	12	54%	0.13	3	-0.07	4	50%	-0.01
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	64%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Ingles	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.04	12	58%	0.10	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	4	40%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Grayson Allen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Favors	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royce O'Neale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.04	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Georges Niang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.3	3.4	25.5	14.0	30.1	3.4	39.6	145.2
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +26.4%

UTA +9.4%

UTA +4.8%

UTA +7.3%

UTA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	14.7	14.7	14.3	110.2	116.3	109.3
season	14.8	14.3		112.0	109.3
opponent	14.3	14.6		105.2	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	18.0	15.0	14.3	11.9	14.7
UTA	12.7	15.7	15.1	15.2	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trey Lyles	41	40	0.21	-0.71	0.91	-0.12	11	-17	28	15.3	14.3	0.99	14.5	14.8	-0.29
Malik Beasley	16	17	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.13	9	-15	24	12.4	15.2	-2.80	15.2	14.6	0.68
Juancho Hernangomez	11	12	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.07	6	-12	18	16.2	14.5	1.65	13.9	14.8	-0.86
Monte Morris	47	46	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.17	4	-10	14	15.7	13.8	1.86	14.2	15.1	-0.94
Will Barton	61	61	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.36	10	-16	26	13.9	16.1	-2.15	15.1	14.0	1.13
Mason Plumlee	6	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.00	-3	-3	0	20.0	14.4	5.63	13.2	14.8	-1.61
Gary Harris	58	58	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	3	-12	14.1	15.7	-1.62	14.9	14.3	0.55
Paul Millsap	36	35	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.11	-20	14	-34	16.8	13.5	3.35	14.2	15.0	-0.78
Torrey Craig	78	80	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.33	-7	1	-8	14.4	15.7	-1.30	14.4	15.8	-1.35
Nikola Jokic	76	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.29	-11	5	-16	14.1	16.8	-2.71	14.9	13.8	1.16
Jamal Murray	60	58	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.08	-20	14	-34	14.7	14.7	-0.04	15.0	14.2	0.76

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donovan Mitchell	78	79	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.13	21	-15	36	14.7	14.7	-0.10	15.0	13.5	1.47
Rudy Gobert	75	77	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.19	16	-10	26	15.0	13.6	1.45	14.0	17.3	-3.33
Royce O'Neale	48	48	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.25	1	5	-4	13.8	15.5	-1.65	15.4	14.0	1.42
Jae Crowder	69	70	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.33	-2	8	-10	15.3	13.1	2.23	13.1	18.6	-5.50
Ricky Rubio	49	50	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.12	4	2	2	15.5	13.8	1.67	14.2	15.3	-1.13
Joe Ingles	76	74	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	9	-12	15.0	13.4	1.63	13.9	17.2	-3.30
Derrick Favors	10	9	0.17	0.34	-0.17	-0.07	8	-2	10	12.3	14.9	-2.64	21.2	14.1	7.17
Kyle Korver	37	36	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	7	-8	13.6	15.3	-1.73	15.7	14.1	1.64
Georges Niang	19	19	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	6	-6	13.5	14.9	-1.42	17.4	14.1	3.36
Grayson Allen	6	7	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	10	-14	16.8	14.5	2.30	13.7	14.8	-1.08
Ekpe Udoh	23	21	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.12	-10	16	-26	13.6	15.0	-1.45	17.3	14.0	3.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.65,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.76,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 85, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.84,0.93,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.91,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.94,0.97,0.99,1	94.7%
ATL 82, LAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
IND 98, SAS 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.47,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.85,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1	94.1%