NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	119		Excitement	4.3 [976]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS): +16.1%
Detroit Pistons	107		Comeback	2.5 [657]		LVP	Stanley Johnson (DET): -6.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.04	0.01	12	78%	0.22	4	-0.06	8	87%	0.02
Bryn Forbes	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.05	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.02	0.01	21	59%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derrick White	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.11	0.01	0.05	7	74%	0.09	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.02
Marco Belinelli	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.01	6	64%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.01	10	57%	0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.05	6	17%	-0.05

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Blake Griffin	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.19	-0.02	0.08	21	71%	0.17	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.01
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	5	71%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	0.00	0.05	10	67%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	59%	0.04	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	16	41%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	0.06	14	61%	0.01	5	-0.07	3	33%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	1.7	26.4	15.4	26.1	1.6	35.3	131.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.1%

SAS +9.3%

SAS +5.3%

SAS +5.0%

DET -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	14.5	16.2	14.3	128.0	112.6	109.3
season	14.8	15.3		111.7	107.5
opponent	14.0	14.4		109.0	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.4	14.3	14.4	13.8	14.5
DET	15.2	17.0	18.4	14.4	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	56	58	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.17	9	3	6	14.6	14.2	0.45	15.5	17.2	-1.64
Bryn Forbes	69	70	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.16	9	3	6	14.4	14.5	-0.11	15.8	17.3	-1.52
Davis Bertans	48	46	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.07	16	-4	20	14.0	15.0	-1.04	17.1	15.3	1.84
DeMar DeRozan	70	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.18	6	6	0	14.3	14.9	-0.54	15.6	17.7	-2.12
Patty Mills	50	53	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	0	12	14.5	14.5	-0.01	16.0	16.3	-0.31
Derrick White	67	68	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.14	6	6	0	14.7	13.8	0.86	16.6	14.9	1.72
Marco Belinelli	36	40	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.04	9	3	6	14.5	14.4	0.06	17.1	15.5	1.63
Pau Gasol	16	16	0.02	0.48	-0.47	-0.01	1	11	-10	13.5	14.7	-1.16	17.6	15.9	1.69
Jakob Poeltl	53	54	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.21	-8	20	-28	14.9	13.9	1.03	15.7	16.8	-1.10

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	47	45	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.17	6	-18	24	15.4	16.9	-1.41	14.9	14.1	0.83
Jon Leuer	20	18	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.13	3	-15	18	17.0	15.9	1.07	17.4	13.8	3.63
Bruce Brown	65	64	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.23	6	-18	24	16.4	15.7	0.72	14.4	14.6	-0.18
Reggie Bullock	72	70	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.21	5	-17	22	15.6	17.8	-2.20	14.8	13.4	1.42
Glenn Robinson III	13	12	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-11	10	17.2	16.0	1.15	16.6	14.1	2.44
Blake Griffin	74	72	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.24	4	-16	20	15.9	17.0	-1.02	14.7	13.8	0.90
Langston Galloway	10	11	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.11	-16	4	-20	18.7	15.9	2.84	9.9	15.1	-5.16
Stanley Johnson	21	21	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.09	-16	4	-20	17.0	15.9	1.02	13.8	14.7	-0.90
Luke Kennard	32	32	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	0.08	-18	6	-24	15.9	16.3	-0.43	14.4	14.5	-0.09
Andre Drummond	75	75	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.02	-15	3	-18	15.9	17.0	-1.07	13.8	17.4	-3.63
Jose Calderon	46	45	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.03	-18	6	-24	16.8	15.6	1.17	14.2	14.7	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.58,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.29,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.2,0.21,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 122, GSW 101	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.26,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.27,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
MIA 98, DET 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.3%
MEM 93, POR 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.47,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.14,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.05,0	94.1%