NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	3.5 [1092]		MVP	Quentin Richardson (MIA): +14.6%
Detroit Pistons	81		Comeback	2.1 [852]		LVP	Jonas Jerebko (DET): -9.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quentin Richardson	0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.02	0.01	9	89%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.16	0.01	0.02	8	89%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.00	-0.03	5	77%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Beasley	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	22	55%	0.06	2	-0.01	7	86%	0.01
Daequan Cook	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yakhouba Diawara	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.01	0.03	5	80%	0.04	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	6	50%	0.01	5	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	13	36%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.06	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	3	-0.05	2	50%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.02	0.03	10	65%	0.08	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.01	14	55%	0.05	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	9	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	-0.01	-0.05	9	33%	-0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
DaJuan Summers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	7	31%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.13	-0.00	-0.04	12	32%	-0.06	3	-0.03	4	25%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.8	31.2	16.7	28.0	1.8	30.2	137.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +38.9%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +4.5%

DET -2.0%

MIA +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	17.7	16.6	15.3	116.7	96.4	106.0
season	16.2	16.8		104.4	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.4		109.8	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.5	16.9	17.4	18.8	17.7
DET	13.8	21.0	17.8	14.6	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Arroyo	60	60	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.22	25	-8	33	17.6	17.9	-0.29	17.4	14.6	2.79
Michael Beasley	70	70	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.09	20	-3	23	17.2	20.0	-2.80	16.8	15.8	1.00
Udonis Haslem	47	47	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	0	17	19.3	15.6	3.65	16.4	16.9	-0.44
Mario Chalmers	53	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.00	14	3	11	18.6	16.1	2.54	16.5	16.8	-0.30
Dorell Wright	36	36	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.17	19	-2	21	18.3	17.2	1.07	18.4	15.3	3.10
Quentin Richardson	42	43	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	17	-17	17.3	18.0	-0.67	16.0	17.2	-1.17
Dwyane Wade	49	50	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	20	-23	16.9	18.7	-1.80	16.6	16.7	-0.15
Joel Anthony	51	51	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	20	-23	16.8	19.0	-2.15	16.6	16.7	-0.13
Daequan Cook	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	16.3	17.8	-1.44	8.8	17.1	-8.31
Yakhouba Diawara	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	19	-21	16.3	17.8	-1.44	8.8	17.1	-8.31

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	9	9	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.00	1	-18	19	13.1	17.0	-3.93	15.8	17.9	-2.12
Kwame Brown	19	20	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.13	1	-18	19	13.8	17.4	-3.59	16.9	17.9	-0.94
Jonas Jerebko	57	57	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-12	7	15.9	18.1	-2.14	17.6	17.8	-0.16
Tayshaun Prince	54	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.03	-5	-12	7	16.8	16.4	0.39	17.2	18.4	-1.19
Rodney Stuckey	57	58	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	-12	7	17.0	15.8	1.19	17.1	19.0	-1.99
Ben Wallace	34	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-11	5	19.6	14.6	4.94	16.9	18.2	-1.22
Will Bynum	67	65	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.05	-14	-3	-11	16.3	17.7	-1.36	17.5	18.3	-0.77
Austin Daye	34	35	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.17	-20	3	-23	16.7	16.6	0.15	18.7	16.9	1.80
Ben Gordon	39	39	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.07	-17	0	-17	17.5	15.8	1.72	19.1	16.4	2.63
DaJuan Summers	50	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	-2	-13	16.1	17.4	-1.28	18.4	16.6	1.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.06,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 110, MEM 90	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
PHX 103, MEM 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.15,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%
GSW 108, UTA 91	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.17,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%