NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	111		Excitement	5.3 [789]		MVP	Derrick White (SAS): +23.9%
San Antonio Spurs	120		Comeback	3.3 [310]		LVP	Gordon Hayward (BOS): -11.2%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jaylen Brown	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.24	0.01	0.05	15	79%	0.20	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Marcus Morris	0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.01	0.03	13	62%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.11	-0.00	0.04	9	65%	0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Al Horford	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	7	64%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	14	53%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Jayson Tatum	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	14	43%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Guerschon Yabusele	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	58%	0.02	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Daniel Theis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	6	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick White	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.20	0.04	0.01	9	96%	0.25	1	-0.01	5	80%	-0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.04	-0.01	23	60%	0.22	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.02	0.02	12	71%	0.11	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	79%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.03	14	54%	0.06	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.02	-0.00	18	35%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.3	25.6	15.4	24.5	2.3	27.6	123.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.0%

SAS +13.0%

SAS +0.9%

SAS +7.1%

BOS -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAS	NBA	BOS	SAS	NBA
this game	14.5	14.9	14.3	114.4	121.2	109.3
season	13.9	14.8		109.9	111.7
opponent	14.4	14.7		110.4	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.8	15.3	15.0	12.8	14.5
SAS	14.6	16.0	13.8	15.3	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Rozier	41	42	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.09	4	-13	17	14.3	14.7	-0.39	15.2	14.7	0.52
Guerschon Yabusele	7	7	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.05	-3	-6	3	15.1	14.4	0.70	15.3	14.9	0.43
Daniel Theis	39	40	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-7	5	14.9	14.2	0.72	14.1	15.4	-1.37
Gordon Hayward	45	46	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	-7	5	15.4	13.7	1.77	14.3	15.4	-1.17
Marcus Morris	57	58	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-6	3	13.7	15.6	-1.97	15.4	14.1	1.35
Jaylen Brown	64	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-7	5	14.1	15.2	-1.04	14.5	15.6	-1.11
Al Horford	51	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.16	-4	-5	1	14.1	15.0	-0.88	15.5	14.3	1.21
Marcus Smart	53	55	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.01	-13	4	-17	14.9	14.0	0.91	15.1	14.6	0.58
Jayson Tatum	71	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.27	-4	-5	1	14.4	14.7	-0.27	15.1	14.4	0.64
Kyrie Irving	57	59	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.09	-16	7	-23	14.8	14.0	0.80	14.6	15.3	-0.77

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Davis Bertans	66	63	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.12	17	-8	25	13.9	16.8	-2.94	14.9	13.7	1.17
LaMarcus Aldridge	72	72	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-6	21	14.9	14.7	0.20	14.4	14.8	-0.36
DeMar DeRozan	73	73	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.25	7	2	5	14.7	15.4	-0.72	14.1	15.6	-1.50
Derrick White	60	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.19	8	1	7	15.3	14.3	1.04	13.8	15.6	-1.83
Bryn Forbes	79	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.14	9	0	9	15.3	13.1	2.24	14.4	14.9	-0.51
Marco Belinelli	47	46	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	10	-11	14.4	15.3	-0.96	15.4	13.7	1.71
Dante Cunningham	6	5	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	7	-5	17.0	14.8	2.25	14.6	14.5	0.11
Patty Mills	39	38	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	8	-7	14.3	15.3	-1.04	15.6	13.8	1.83
Pau Gasol	11	11	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	8	-7	11.3	15.3	-4.07	17.1	14.2	2.93
Jakob Poeltl	42	41	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.21	-14	23	-37	17.0	13.3	3.71	13.2	15.5	-2.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.44,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.36,0.45,0.65,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 76, PHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.5,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.45,0.59,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
LAL 82, DEN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.52,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.6%
NJN 102, IND 115	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.72,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.6%