NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	94		Excitement	4.7 [923]		MVP	Bam Adebayo (MIA): +15.3%
Miami Heat	118		Comeback	1.5 [1087]		LVP	Collin Sexton (CLE): -12.0%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alec Burks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.01	-0.02	10	71%	0.14	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jordan Clarkson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.05	11	72%	0.08	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Cedi Osman	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	13	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Channing Frye	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.01	0.06	6	75%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	48%	0.03	3	-0.07	7	71%	-0.01
Jaron Blossomgame	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	32%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jalen Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Collin Sexton	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	10	33%	-0.07	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.16	0.04	0.04	8	100%	0.16	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	8	60%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Rodney McGruder	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.10	-0.01	0.04	10	73%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Jones Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	11	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	21	53%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.06	7	64%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	0.06	14	48%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.0	28.6	14.6	24.6	2.5	26.3	123.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +28.8%

CLE -5.7%

CLE -0.1%

MIA +22.2%

MIA +4.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	15.0	15.1	14.3	96.9	125.5	109.3
season	15.5	14.8		106.3	106.3
opponent	14.3	13.9		106.7	116.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	13.8	14.2	16.6	15.5	15.0
MIA	17.0	16.5	12.7	14.5	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	35	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.03	-6	-18	12	16.3	14.3	2.05	13.9	15.8	-1.89
Jordan Clarkson	65	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.32	-16	-8	-8	13.9	17.4	-3.50	15.7	14.1	1.57
Matthew Dellavedova	42	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.02	-6	-18	12	14.1	15.8	-1.69	15.3	15.0	0.31
Jalen Jones	47	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.13	-11	-13	2	13.6	16.3	-2.70	15.3	15.0	0.27
Collin Sexton	55	55	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.22	-18	-6	-12	15.8	14.1	1.69	15.0	15.3	-0.31
Larry Nance Jr.	61	58	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.13	-16	-8	-8	14.3	16.2	-1.89	15.8	14.1	1.65
Jaron Blossomgame	66	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.01	-13	-11	-2	15.1	14.8	0.33	15.0	15.4	-0.40
Cedi Osman	56	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.10	-17	-7	-10	16.2	13.4	2.84	14.9	15.4	-0.53
Alec Burks	58	57	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	0.09	-17	-7	-10	16.1	13.4	2.71	14.9	15.5	-0.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney McGruder	55	56	0.56	-0.06	0.62	-0.26	28	-4	32	14.8	15.6	-0.79	16.2	13.5	2.72
Justise Winslow	67	68	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.22	23	1	22	14.8	15.9	-1.02	15.3	14.3	0.98
Derrick Jones Jr.	36	37	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.08	11	13	-2	14.0	15.8	-1.78	15.7	14.6	1.09
Hassan Whiteside	34	35	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	15	-6	14.5	15.5	-0.98	16.6	14.1	2.50
Josh Richardson	65	68	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.28	16	8	8	14.9	15.6	-0.61	15.4	14.1	1.32
Tyler Johnson	47	48	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.04	4	20	-16	15.4	14.9	0.51	14.2	15.8	-1.63
Bam Adebayo	60	62	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.29	15	9	6	15.5	14.5	0.98	14.1	16.6	-2.50
Dwyane Wade	48	51	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.06	3	21	-18	15.8	14.4	1.44	13.6	16.6	-3.00
Kelly Olynyk	43	45	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.25	11	13	-2	15.4	14.9	0.58	14.3	15.6	-1.30
James Johnson	15	15	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	24	-24	17.1	14.7	2.39	15.5	14.9	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.66,0.63,0.75,0.85,0.79,0.71,0.75,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 75, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
PHX 105, HOU 115	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.69,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.97,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,1,1,1	95.5%
SAS 75, NOH 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.85,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%