NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	104		Excitement	5.4 [781]		MVP	Luke Kennard (DET): +12.6%
Detroit Pistons	113		Comeback	1.6 [541]		LVP	Jayson Tatum (BOS): -10.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daniel Theis	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	5	80%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.12	-0.01	0.06	11	75%	0.10	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.02
Aron Baynes	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.02	6	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Robert Williams III	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyrie Irving	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	25	49%	0.04	3	-0.08	3	67%	0.01
Marcus Morris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	10	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jaylen Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	6	21%	-0.04	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Gordon Hayward	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	11	27%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.01	-0.03	0.06	15	47%	-0.08	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luke Kennard	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.12	0.02	0.01	4	125%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Langston Galloway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.01	0.02	-0.06	13	50%	0.11	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	14	51%	0.08	1	-0.01	9	78%	0.01
Reggie Bullock	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	-0.01	-0.04	11	62%	0.07	3	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	62%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.03	0.02	16	60%	0.09	5	-0.10	13	77%	-0.02
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	30%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	0.05	5	71%	0.01	3	-0.07	7	86%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.6	25.3	14.4	27.5	2.3	43.5	139.9
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +45.1%

DET +2.6%

DET +3.1%

BOS -2.7%

DET +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	12.4	15.0	14.3	98.1	108.7	109.3
season	13.9	15.3		109.9	107.5
opponent	14.0	14.7		109.0	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	12.7	14.0	13.7	9.6	12.4
DET	15.0	15.4	15.2	14.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Williams III	21	20	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.08	1	-10	11	11.1	12.7	-1.59	17.3	14.5	2.80
Gordon Hayward	64	63	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.20	2	-11	13	11.8	13.4	-1.64	14.7	15.6	-0.86
Jaylen Brown	50	46	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	0	-9	13.3	11.6	1.71	15.0	15.1	-0.03
Marcus Morris	60	61	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-4	-1	12.5	12.2	0.31	14.8	15.3	-0.53
Daniel Theis	42	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-7	5	12.3	12.5	-0.14	14.5	15.4	-0.95
Aron Baynes	39	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.04	-10	1	-11	13.8	11.6	2.22	15.0	15.1	-0.10
Kyrie Irving	73	74	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-10	11	11.7	13.9	-2.21	15.0	15.1	-0.09
Terry Rozier	48	46	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.02	-13	4	-17	13.1	11.8	1.34	15.3	14.8	0.52
Marcus Smart	67	66	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-5	1	12.1	12.9	-0.84	15.0	15.1	-0.06
Jayson Tatum	66	65	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	-3	-3	12.4	12.4	-0.02	15.1	14.9	0.27

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Drummond	71	73	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.28	12	-3	15	14.8	15.5	-0.70	12.6	11.9	0.73
Jose Calderon	52	55	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.08	9	0	9	14.7	15.3	-0.62	12.0	12.9	-0.86
Luke Kennard	45	47	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	-1	11	15.3	14.8	0.48	13.3	11.7	1.66
Bruce Brown	33	32	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.11	7	2	5	16.5	14.4	2.12	13.4	12.0	1.46
Stanley Johnson	24	25	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.08	13	-4	17	15.9	14.8	1.14	14.9	11.7	3.23
Blake Griffin	80	81	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.30	-3	12	-15	14.8	15.9	-1.14	11.7	14.9	-3.23
Langston Galloway	64	65	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	3	3	14.5	15.9	-1.36	11.8	13.4	-1.59
Reggie Bullock	67	69	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.27	-4	13	-17	14.7	15.6	-0.86	11.8	13.5	-1.73
Reggie Jackson	52	51	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.15	0	9	-9	15.3	14.7	0.62	12.9	12.0	0.86
Jon Leuer	32	32	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	14	-19	15.3	14.9	0.44	12.1	12.6	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.6,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.79,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.95,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 87, DAL 114	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.55,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%
MIL 81, NOH 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.72,0.71,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.68,0.77,0.84,0.77,0.7,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%
ORL 72, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.67,0.71,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%