NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	130		Excitement	8.6 [227]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +31.8%
Sacramento Kings	125		Comeback	116.7 [27]		LVP	Draymond Green (GSW): -14.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.32	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.32	0.19	0.13	-0.00	23	65%	0.34	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.07
Klay Thompson	0.31	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.31	0.03	0.27	-0.00	27	47%	0.31	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0.27	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.18,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.27,0.27	0.12	0.18	0.03	20	63%	0.37	4	-0.09	12	92%	0.10
Kevon Looney	0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	5	83%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	6	50%	0.07	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.04
Damion Lee	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	125%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Bell	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Quinn Cook	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Alfonzo McKinnie	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.11	4	25%	-0.05
Draymond Green	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	-0.01	3	33%	-0.03	5	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.26	0.26	0.16	0.10	-0.00	21	64%	0.26	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.14	0.08	0.03	11	67%	0.19	0	0.00	11	73%	-0.01
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.17	0.02	0.02	9	90%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Justin Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	7	56%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Bagley III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
De'Aaron Fox	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	19	57%	0.07	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.03
Yogi Ferrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bogdan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.01	-0.03	13	40%	0.06	4	-0.13	4	75%	-0.00
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.02	0.00	8	31%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.5	1.8	28.1	14.5	30.4	2.5	33.2	138.1
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +11.5%

GSW +25.9%

GSW +29.6%

SAC -16.6%

SAC -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	12.5	12.4	14.3	112.1	108.7	109.3
season	13.4	13.3		114.5	109.2
opponent	14.3	15.0		110.5	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.6	11.6	13.0	12.8	12.5
SAC	10.9	13.2	12.7	12.9	12.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Durant	89	89	1.22	-0.72	1.95	0.55	23	-18	41	12.3	13.3	-1.03	12.4	12.4	0.05
Stephen Curry	86	87	1.03	-0.53	1.56	0.50	18	-13	31	11.8	14.4	-2.60	13.1	10.4	2.69
Kevon Looney	66	67	1.02	-0.52	1.54	0.46	19	-14	33	12.0	13.1	-1.11	12.9	11.7	1.23
Draymond Green	74	74	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.29	16	-11	27	12.7	12.1	0.57	13.3	10.9	2.37
Klay Thompson	90	89	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.30	8	-3	11	13.0	10.8	2.24	12.2	13.2	-1.04
Damion Lee	22	22	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	6	-7	10.5	13.0	-2.53	13.6	12.1	1.50
Jordan Bell	25	25	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.10	-9	14	-23	11.9	12.7	-0.80	10.9	12.8	-1.92
Jonas Jerebko	60	58	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.10	-12	17	-29	13.2	11.7	1.47	11.5	13.3	-1.80
Quinn Cook	30	28	-0.53	1.03	-1.56	-0.15	-13	18	-31	14.4	11.8	2.60	10.4	13.1	-2.69
Alfonzo McKinnie	38	36	-0.91	1.41	-2.32	-0.21	-24	29	-53	12.8	12.4	0.42	12.0	12.6	-0.58

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kosta Koufos	34	35	0.50	-1.00	1.51	0.15	12	-17	29	12.4	12.5	-0.10	13.2	12.2	0.99
Justin Jackson	61	63	0.46	-0.96	1.42	0.28	6	-11	17	12.2	12.7	-0.49	12.6	12.4	0.24
Yogi Ferrell	33	34	0.42	-0.92	1.34	0.27	5	-10	15	12.6	12.3	0.29	13.2	12.2	1.03
Marvin Bagley III	14	14	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.05	3	-8	11	10.9	12.6	-1.79	12.9	12.5	0.48
Bogdan Bogdanovic	81	83	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.47	11	-16	27	12.2	12.9	-0.65	12.4	12.8	-0.35
Iman Shumpert	56	57	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	6	-17	12.3	12.6	-0.31	12.7	12.3	0.41
Buddy Hield	78	77	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	5	-15	13.1	11.1	1.98	12.4	12.7	-0.35
De'Aaron Fox	86	85	-0.85	0.35	-1.21	-0.65	-7	2	-9	12.4	12.5	-0.12	12.1	13.7	-1.64
Willie Cauley-Stein	81	81	-1.00	0.50	-1.51	-0.50	-17	12	-29	12.5	12.4	0.10	12.2	13.2	-0.99
Nemanja Bjelica	51	51	-1.07	0.57	-1.64	-0.57	-17	12	-29	12.5	12.3	0.22	12.6	12.4	0.18

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.38,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.32,0.4,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.15,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.17,0.22,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.26,0.34,0.43,0.67,0.85,0.71,0.54,0.9,0.98,0.99,0.91,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 105, NOP 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.24,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.24,0.41,0.3,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.62,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.6,0.67,0.86,0.93,0.91,0.59,0	89.2%
MIL 103, CHA 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.23,0.19,0.24,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.14,0.21,0.46,0.43,0.57,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.77,0.68,0.93,0.93,0.85,0	88.5%
SAS 90, PHI 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.36,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.3,0.29,0.53,0.73,0.74,0.81,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.43,0.16,0	87.6%