NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	105		Excitement	6.4 [577]		MVP	Andre Iguodala (GSW): +15.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	1.3 [712]		LVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): -15.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.04	0.00	10	75%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.01	10	60%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alfonzo McKinnie	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.05	-0.01	9	50%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	16	62%	0.15	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.04	0.03	17	56%	0.10	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Quinn Cook	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	6	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Jordan Bell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-0.08	14	34%	-0.04	7	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.03	-0.04	13	63%	0.17	4	-0.06	9	67%	0.01
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	8	56%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brook Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	13	47%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	12	54%	0.04	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.02
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	12	58%	0.07	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	14	31%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.05
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	-0.00	7	14%	-0.08	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.4	30.3	14.4	25.4	3.5	27.6	131.7
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +66.4%

MIL -10.6%

MIL -14.9%

GSW +8.3%

GSW +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIL	NBA	GSW	MIL	NBA
this game	13.0	14.7	14.3	100.0	92.2	109.3
season	13.4	13.5		114.5	112.4
opponent	14.3	15.0		104.0	108.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	10.9	12.9	13.1	15.5	13.0
MIL	15.8	15.4	13.0	14.5	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	52	51	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.19	10	0	10	13.7	12.4	1.24	15.5	13.9	1.61
Shaun Livingston	41	39	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.16	10	0	10	13.6	12.7	0.95	15.7	14.0	1.71
Stephen Curry	79	78	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.06	9	1	8	12.5	14.7	-2.26	14.6	15.0	-0.48
Alfonzo McKinnie	35	35	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.20	3	7	-4	15.1	12.0	3.04	14.4	14.8	-0.47
Jordan Bell	35	34	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	6	-2	11.9	13.6	-1.63	16.0	14.0	1.97
Kevin Durant	82	80	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.10	5	5	0	12.3	15.6	-3.30	15.1	13.1	1.99
Klay Thompson	78	76	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	8	-6	13.6	11.5	2.03	13.9	16.8	-2.84
Kevon Looney	61	60	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.02	3	7	-4	13.6	12.2	1.38	13.7	16.0	-2.27
Andre Iguodala	61	61	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	8	-6	12.2	14.1	-1.91	14.4	15.1	-0.78
Quinn Cook	1	1	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	8	-6	0.0	13.2	-13.15	4.0	14.8	-10.78

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khris Middleton	58	61	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.14	5	-15	20	13.3	16.5	-3.25	13.9	11.8	2.16
Pat Connaughton	46	45	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-12	14	16.5	13.2	3.37	11.8	14.0	-2.23
Brook Lopez	75	78	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-9	8	13.6	17.7	-4.12	13.6	11.3	2.38
Giannis Antetokounmpo	73	75	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-7	4	14.3	15.6	-1.30	13.2	12.7	0.51
Malcolm Brogdon	68	69	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.13	-12	2	-14	14.9	14.3	0.55	12.2	14.6	-2.41
Sterling Brown	32	31	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-4	-2	15.2	14.5	0.69	15.3	12.1	3.16
Thon Maker	27	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	-3	-4	15.3	14.5	0.79	12.5	13.2	-0.77
Ersan Ilyasova	26	25	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-3	-4	17.6	13.7	3.93	10.9	13.7	-2.77
Eric Bledsoe	64	67	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	-4	-2	13.3	16.9	-3.57	13.7	11.8	1.98
Tony Snell	46	46	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.07	-15	5	-20	16.3	13.4	2.94	12.0	13.8	-1.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.43,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.32,0.35,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.22,0.26,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 109, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.41,0.46,0.37,0.46,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.25,0.11,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0	94.2%
MIA 86, NJN 80	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.31,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.1%
MIN 105, SAC 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.29,0.29,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.8%