NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	118		Excitement	5.9 [674]		MVP	Al-Farouq Aminu (POR): +25.6%
San Antonio Spurs	131		Comeback	2.5 [426]		LVP	Seth Curry (POR): -5.5%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al-Farouq Aminu	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.19	0.05	-0.02	9	100%	0.26	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.02
Damian Lillard	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	28	56%	0.13	1	-0.02	10	100%	0.03
Jusuf Nurkic	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	11	67%	0.14	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Meyers Leonard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Maurice Harkless	0.02	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.01	-0.03	5	80%	0.09	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Nik Stauskas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	3	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.04	0.02	22	55%	0.13	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Zach Collins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Seth Curry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.07	0.13	-0.03	27	56%	0.36	4	-0.13	10	100%	0.06
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.01	15	76%	0.28	5	-0.10	8	87%	0.03
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.03	0.08	-0.03	7	62%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.17	0.01	0.07	10	90%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.04	8	83%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	7	71%	0.11	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	6	58%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chimezie Metu	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Pondexter	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	28.6	15.3	25.4	2.4	29.3	127.6
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.0%

SAS +12.7%

POR -0.7%

SAS +7.9%

SAS +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAS	NBA	POR	SAS	NBA
this game	15.3	13.1	14.3	118.0	127.2	109.3
season	14.9	14.8		112.6	111.7
opponent	14.4	13.9		110.4	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	14.8	14.6	15.6	16.3	15.3
SAS	14.0	13.1	11.7	13.7	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	64	67	0.15	-0.66	0.81	-0.02	6	-19	25	13.8	18.0	-4.26	14.7	10.2	4.43
Maurice Harkless	70	73	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.11	6	-19	25	14.2	17.9	-3.76	14.2	10.5	3.63
CJ McCollum	80	82	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.08	-1	-12	11	14.7	17.7	-3.00	14.0	9.7	4.32
Al-Farouq Aminu	74	79	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.11	-4	-9	5	14.8	16.8	-2.04	13.4	12.0	1.44
Zach Collins	24	24	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.01	-8	-5	-3	17.7	14.5	3.22	11.9	13.5	-1.61
Damian Lillard	87	90	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-6	-1	14.7	19.2	-4.52	13.3	11.7	1.62
Meyers Leonard	28	27	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.01	-17	4	-21	17.7	14.4	3.30	10.6	14.0	-3.41
Seth Curry	35	35	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.10	-19	6	-25	17.6	14.1	3.49	10.2	14.6	-4.36
Nik Stauskas	38	38	-0.71	0.21	-0.91	-0.09	-21	8	-29	18.2	13.5	4.69	10.5	14.6	-4.17

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	68	69	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.15	21	-8	29	12.7	13.9	-1.27	16.0	13.7	2.35
Patty Mills	53	53	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.00	24	-11	35	12.5	13.7	-1.15	15.4	15.2	0.20
Jakob Poeltl	28	30	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.02	15	-2	17	10.6	14.0	-3.43	17.9	14.2	3.67
Dante Cunningham	25	25	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.07	13	0	13	9.3	14.3	-5.00	16.6	14.9	1.68
DeMar DeRozan	83	80	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.11	9	4	5	13.4	11.8	1.56	14.6	18.0	-3.37
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	69	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	15	-17	14.2	10.3	3.89	14.2	17.8	-3.59
Davis Bertans	59	55	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	11	-9	13.0	13.3	-0.29	15.5	15.0	0.51
Chimezie Metu	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	2.0	13.2	-11.22	15.0	15.3	-0.30
Quincy Pondexter	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	2.0	13.2	-11.22	15.0	15.3	-0.30
Rudy Gay	74	71	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	19	-25	14.5	9.4	5.09	14.7	16.7	-1.96
Bryn Forbes	49	46	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	24	-35	13.9	12.4	1.59	15.2	15.4	-0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.29,0.35,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 81, MIA 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.5%
NYK 107, LAL 127	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%
LAL 79, DEN 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.84,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,1,1,1	93.2%