NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	81		Excitement	5.6 [712]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +23.1%
Miami Heat	88		Comeback	1.8 [925]		LVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): -12.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zaza Pachulia	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.01	4	70%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	0.00
Shelden Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Esteban Batista	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	5	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.06	12	67%	0.06	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Josh Childress	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	11	58%	0.03	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Tyronn Lue	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	7	35%	-0.01	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.02
Josh Smith	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.01	0.03	17	42%	-0.05	3	-0.07	4	25%	-0.07
Joe Johnson	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.03	-0.04	14	37%	-0.01	5	-0.12	4	75%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.16	0.14	0.07	12	75%	0.23	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.02	2	70%	0.10	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	8	50%	0.03	2	-0.02	6	67%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	0.04	-0.02	11	41%	0.05	3	-0.07	12	33%	-0.14
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.05	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	9	28%	-0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.2	2.4	28.6	15.4	28.7	1.0	33.0	137.2
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.1%

MIA +3.1%

ATL -3.6%

MIA +14.3%

ATL -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	16.9	14.7	15.4	90.0	95.7	104.5
season	16.1	16.0		101.1	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.3		104.3	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.3	19.6	15.4	15.8	16.9
MIA	15.5	13.4	17.3	13.0	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelden Williams	16	19	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.07	-2	-5	3	15.9	17.2	-1.30	15.1	14.6	0.41
Zaza Pachulia	52	55	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.28	9	-16	25	15.7	18.6	-2.92	14.7	14.8	-0.09
Marvin Williams	24	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-8	9	18.7	16.3	2.41	14.7	14.7	-0.03
Anthony Johnson	63	64	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-12	17	16.4	18.1	-1.67	14.6	15.0	-0.34
Esteban Batista	13	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-3	-1	17.9	16.8	1.14	14.8	14.7	0.05
Solomon Jones	15	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	15.5	17.2	-1.77	16.7	14.4	2.32
Josh Smith	70	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.24	0	-7	7	16.8	17.3	-0.46	15.5	12.2	3.29
Lorenzen Wright	20	19	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	1	-9	18.0	16.6	1.36	14.4	14.8	-0.39
Joe Johnson	86	88	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-4	1	16.9	17.7	-0.84	14.7	16.0	-1.33
Tyronn Lue	37	37	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.12	-13	6	-19	17.9	16.3	1.65	14.3	15.0	-0.72
Josh Childress	54	55	-0.70	0.20	-0.89	-0.20	-17	10	-27	17.6	16.0	1.53	13.8	16.2	-2.40

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	65	64	0.76	-0.26	1.01	0.26	17	-10	27	13.5	17.6	-4.05	17.6	15.2	2.41
Alonzo Mourning	40	36	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.28	14	-7	21	12.4	16.5	-4.16	17.4	16.6	0.79
Eddie Jones	79	75	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.21	13	-6	19	14.4	17.0	-2.65	17.1	16.3	0.81
Gary Payton	48	48	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.16	14	-7	21	13.0	16.6	-3.57	17.2	16.6	0.61
Antoine Walker	51	52	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.15	14	-7	21	14.2	15.3	-1.11	17.9	15.6	2.32
Udonis Haslem	37	34	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.08	-5	12	-17	16.2	13.7	2.49	16.2	17.4	-1.14
Jason Williams	48	46	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.19	-9	16	-25	15.8	13.5	2.27	16.1	17.9	-1.80
Shaquille O'Neal	52	54	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	0.01	-7	14	-21	16.5	12.4	4.16	16.6	17.4	-0.79
Jason Kapono	40	41	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	0.12	-16	23	-39	17.4	12.7	4.73	15.6	18.1	-2.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.36,0.37,0.48,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.45,0.52,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.8,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 104, POR 115	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.83,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1	94.4%
NYK 91, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.59,0.69,0.66,0.68,0.74,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.4%
SEA 101, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.66,0.57,0.64,0.45,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.89,0.98,1,1	93.6%