NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	79		Excitement	6.4 [549]		MVP	Chauncey Billups (DEN): +13.6%
Denver Nuggets	90		Comeback	2.1 [410]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (LAL): -19.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derek Fisher	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.02	7	47%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
DJ Mbenga	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Pau Gasol	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.02	0.02	13	56%	0.09	2	-0.07	6	100%	0.04
Luke Walton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	37%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Josh Powell	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Vujacic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kobe Bryant	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	31	39%	-0.09	2	-0.05	12	75%	0.01
Lamar Odom	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.08	0.02	17	32%	-0.16	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.01
Trevor Ariza	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.16	-0.05	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.01	15	65%	0.24	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
J.R. Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.09	0.02	0.01	14	58%	0.10	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	55%	0.08	2	-0.05	12	42%	-0.06
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.06	0.00	0.05	4	80%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenyon Martin	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	47%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Dahntay Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	22%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.19	-0.02	-0.03	17	32%	-0.05	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.0	2.4	33.5	16.4	25.5	2.4	35.7	143.9
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +73.5%

DEN +0.8%

LAL -18.0%

LAL -4.7%

LAL -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.4	13.4	15.5	82.3	91.8	106.4
season	14.9	14.4		110.6	109.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		105.2	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	17.1	17.9	16.8	14.0	16.4
DEN	14.2	12.8	14.5	12.2	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	68	69	0.16	-0.66	0.81	-0.11	9	-20	29	16.3	16.5	-0.19	14.4	10.8	3.64
Luke Walton	65	66	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.14	9	-20	29	16.5	16.1	0.44	14.5	10.9	3.64
DJ Mbenga	15	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-15	19	12.3	17.1	-4.86	9.9	14.1	-4.25
Kobe Bryant	81	80	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.14	4	-15	19	16.0	18.3	-2.25	13.5	12.6	0.91
Josh Powell	16	18	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.04	-7	-4	-3	17.2	16.2	0.99	14.8	13.0	1.74
Lamar Odom	62	62	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.09	-7	-4	-3	16.8	15.6	1.25	14.0	12.3	1.71
Pau Gasol	78	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.07	-12	1	-13	16.9	13.8	3.12	14.2	10.4	3.73
Sasha Vujacic	26	29	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	0.01	-19	8	-27	15.5	16.7	-1.24	11.9	14.0	-2.03
Trevor Ariza	39	38	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.12	-18	7	-25	17.4	15.7	1.67	10.6	15.1	-4.49
Jordan Farmar	30	33	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.13	-18	7	-25	15.8	16.6	-0.82	10.8	14.6	-3.83

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
J.R. Smith	69	66	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.19	25	-14	39	12.7	15.0	-2.38	15.8	17.6	-1.75
Chris Andersen	59	57	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.08	27	-16	43	13.0	13.9	-0.85	16.3	16.5	-0.21
Linas Kleiza	22	23	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.03	20	-9	29	12.0	13.8	-1.81	18.5	15.7	2.78
Anthony Carter	32	32	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.09	15	-4	19	12.7	13.7	-1.04	16.4	16.3	0.11
Chauncey Billups	82	78	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	2	7	13.8	11.0	2.82	16.2	17.1	-0.85
Carmelo Anthony	82	82	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	13	-15	13.2	14.3	-1.14	16.5	15.6	0.84
Nene	45	43	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.19	-3	14	-17	12.2	14.3	-2.14	14.7	17.8	-3.10
Kenyon Martin	52	51	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.06	-11	22	-33	14.3	12.3	2.03	17.3	15.3	2.02
Johan Petro	16	17	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.06	-9	20	-29	16.7	12.7	3.98	16.1	16.4	-0.37
Dahntay Jones	31	31	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	0.06	-16	27	-43	14.9	12.6	2.31	17.1	16.0	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.84,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 118, SAS 131	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.72,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.29,0.35,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.64,0.78,0.82,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.86,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
NYK 107, LAL 127	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.71,0.81,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.9,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%
CLE 81, MIA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.98,0.97,0.99,1	92.9%