NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	81		Excitement	6.9 [457]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +10.8%
Miami Heat	86		Comeback	1.9 [407]		LVP	Anderson Varejao (CLE): -16.2%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	22	52%	0.14	2	-0.05	12	58%	-0.06
Donyell Marshall	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.03	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	3	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Scot Pollard	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Hughes	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	17	40%	-0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Daniel Gibson	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	7	57%	0.04	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	8	25%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.04	0.04	9	44%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Anderson Varejao	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.10	-0.04	0.02	6	19%	-0.12	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	6	75%	0.19	3	-0.08	8	62%	-0.01
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.03	-0.01	5	71%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.01	18	44%	0.06	0	0.00	7	14%	-0.07
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.07	-0.00	18	40%	0.03	1	-0.01	6	67%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	8	37%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	4.0	37.2	17.7	26.0	2.8	37.2	151.5
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +43.6%

MIA +2.6%

CLE -1.2%

MIA +5.0%

CLE -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	15.8	15.4	88.0	92.5	104.5
season	16.0	16.0		103.2	102.4
opponent	15.6	15.6		104.3	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	15.7	15.7	13.4	16.6	15.3
MIA	13.7	15.6	18.7	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Daniel Gibson	68	69	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.30	13	-18	31	14.7	17.2	-2.52	16.8	13.0	3.75
Drew Gooden	46	48	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.23	10	-15	25	15.5	15.2	0.26	18.2	13.2	5.01
Scot Pollard	3	3	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-3	1	19.0	15.2	3.78	16.0	15.8	0.22
LeBron James	81	82	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.28	6	-11	17	14.5	21.9	-7.45	15.9	14.8	1.10
David Wesley	10	10	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	3	-11	20.9	14.7	6.23	10.7	16.4	-5.70
Donyell Marshall	37	35	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.16	-1	-4	3	13.4	16.7	-3.25	13.8	17.0	-3.18
Larry Hughes	68	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-5	5	15.7	14.2	1.54	16.9	12.7	4.19
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	49	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-5	5	17.0	13.5	3.45	18.1	13.2	4.98
Damon Jones	20	21	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.31	-2	-3	1	13.7	15.8	-2.11	14.2	16.2	-2.00
Anderson Varejao	49	50	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.11	-17	12	-29	14.9	15.9	-1.05	12.7	19.4	-6.67
Eric Snow	29	30	-0.71	0.21	-0.93	-0.01	-24	19	-43	17.7	14.3	3.37	13.1	17.0	-3.91

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Posey	54	53	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.29	19	-14	33	14.4	17.8	-3.42	16.2	14.2	2.03
Gary Payton	52	52	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.29	14	-9	23	14.5	17.4	-2.91	16.5	13.9	2.61
Antoine Walker	35	35	0.68	-0.17	0.85	0.06	21	-16	37	15.2	16.1	-0.94	16.9	14.4	2.57
Alonzo Mourning	35	35	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.09	14	-9	23	14.5	16.6	-2.08	16.6	14.6	2.07
Jason Kapono	74	74	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.36	-4	9	-13	16.3	13.8	2.51	15.0	16.6	-1.57
Dorell Wright	11	11	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.07	8	-3	11	11.4	16.4	-5.01	20.0	14.7	5.28
Shaquille O'Neal	52	51	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.22	-6	11	-17	18.3	12.6	5.72	15.4	15.3	0.01
Eddie Jones	47	45	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.19	-12	17	-29	15.9	15.7	0.22	13.4	17.2	-3.86
Udonis Haslem	59	57	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.27	-16	21	-37	16.0	15.4	0.54	14.4	16.9	-2.57
Jason Williams	46	47	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	0.08	-13	18	-31	17.4	14.2	3.14	13.4	17.3	-3.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.66,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.98,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 107, NYK 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.54,0.7,0.79,0.62,0.77,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.91,1	93.2%
LAL 79, DEN 90	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.57,0.67,0.72,0.65,0.7,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.59,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.33,0.35,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.62,0.74,0.82,0.86,0.95,0.84,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,1,1,1	92.9%
PHX 115, LAL 122	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.4,0.48,0.62,0.7,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.96,0.96,0.98,1,1	92.9%