NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	129		Excitement	8.3 [260]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +37.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	135		Comeback	11.4 [283]		LVP	Rudy Gay (SAS): -9.9%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.25,0.21,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.05	-0.02	26	55%	0.19	0	0.00	10	70%	-0.01
Bryn Forbes	0.15	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.15	0.11	0.05	0.01	11	82%	0.20	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.07	0.06	0.00	3	69%	0.12	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Marco Belinelli	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.05	0.01	9	60%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Davis Bertans	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.14	-0.01	0.03	11	74%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	64%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.04
Quincy Pondexter	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	12	54%	0.05	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.08	-0.02	9	53%	0.07	4	-0.17	1	0%	-0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.32,0.36,0.37	0.37	0.15	0.21	-0.01	16	65%	0.46	3	-0.09	20	80%	0.07
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.27	0.27	0.16	0.12	0.01	15	77%	0.29	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.10	0.00	14	70%	0.28	3	-0.09	2	50%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	-0.01	-0.00	6	92%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.00	15	59%	0.12	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.03
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	82%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.7	27.5	15.3	29.9	1.8	33.8	135.8
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +38.8%

MIL +10.0%

MIL +10.7%

SAS -3.6%

SAS -6.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.3	13.2	14.3	122.9	129.8	109.3
season	14.8	13.5		111.7	112.4
opponent	14.3	14.4		104.0	110.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.3	15.1	14.2	14.9	14.3
MIL	12.4	14.2	12.5	13.9	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jakob Poeltl	32	33	0.54	-1.04	1.58	-0.13	23	-29	52	11.9	15.4	-3.46	13.6	13.0	0.58
Marco Belinelli	39	40	0.50	-1.00	1.50	-0.09	20	-26	46	12.1	15.7	-3.65	13.3	13.1	0.18
Patty Mills	49	51	0.40	-0.90	1.30	-0.13	18	-24	42	12.5	16.0	-3.47	14.2	12.3	1.85
Davis Bertans	50	52	0.37	-0.87	1.25	-0.13	17	-23	40	13.4	15.2	-1.72	13.5	12.9	0.65
Derrick White	13	13	0.23	-0.73	0.95	-0.18	14	-20	34	9.8	15.0	-5.13	13.9	13.1	0.81
Quincy Pondexter	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-6	6	0.0	14.5	-14.48	0.0	13.2	-13.21
Rudy Gay	65	64	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.11	-9	3	-12	15.3	12.8	2.49	13.5	12.8	0.71
Dante Cunningham	68	66	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.16	-23	17	-40	15.0	13.2	1.74	13.3	13.1	0.25
Bryn Forbes	67	63	-1.08	0.58	-1.66	-0.23	-29	23	-52	15.5	12.2	3.30	12.6	14.2	-1.66
LaMarcus Aldridge	66	64	-1.12	0.62	-1.74	-0.27	-29	23	-52	15.8	11.9	3.85	12.5	14.3	-1.77
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	-1.13	0.63	-1.76	-0.19	-32	26	-58	15.6	11.1	4.54	12.8	14.2	-1.44

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malcolm Brogdon	73	73	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.30	21	-15	36	13.0	13.7	-0.71	15.4	11.9	3.46
Eric Bledsoe	74	74	0.89	-0.39	1.27	0.27	21	-15	36	12.8	14.2	-1.34	15.0	12.7	2.27
Giannis Antetokounmpo	86	85	0.86	-0.36	1.22	0.27	20	-14	34	13.2	13.2	0.05	14.5	13.8	0.61
Khris Middleton	75	76	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-5	16	13.0	13.7	-0.66	14.9	12.8	2.09
Brook Lopez	63	66	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	1	4	13.3	13.0	0.35	13.8	15.3	-1.58
Sterling Brown	32	32	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	-2	10	13.2	13.2	0.06	16.1	13.6	2.52
Thon Maker	35	36	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.04	-1	7	-8	12.6	13.5	-0.96	15.1	14.0	1.08
Tony Snell	21	22	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	0.03	-16	22	-38	13.0	13.3	-0.27	11.3	15.1	-3.83
Matthew Dellavedova	23	24	-0.51	1.01	-1.52	-0.07	-15	21	-36	14.0	13.0	1.07	12.0	15.0	-3.09
Pat Connaughton	38	37	-0.69	1.19	-1.88	0.02	-24	30	-54	14.7	12.4	2.28	11.6	15.8	-4.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.62,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.51,0.5,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.52,0.44,0.32,0.22,0.1,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.54,0.91,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 95, MIA 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.29,0.28,0.45,0.55,0.94,0.98,1	91.9%
ATL 96, CHA 100	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.32,0.52,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.13,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.39,0.53,0.72,0.87,0.92,1	91.7%
OKC 109, POR 114	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.28,0.31,0.72,0.97,1,1	90.9%