NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	125		Excitement	2.6 [1241]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +9.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Comeback	1.0 [891]		LVP	Jimmy Butler (MIN): -8.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.02	10	73%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0.08	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.02	10	80%	0.11	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Malcolm Brogdon	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	8	81%	0.08	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.00	-0.05	7	50%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	0.00	0.05	6	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brook Lopez	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.04	0.00	0.04	9	61%	0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte DiVincenzo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	9	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	4	75%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thon Maker	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.06	0.00	0.06	4	80%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Sterling Brown	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	9	62%	0.02	4	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Pat Connaughton	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Bledsoe	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	46%	-0.01	4	-0.06	1	0%	-0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.00	-0.03	13	45%	0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	9	61%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	13	43%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	7	29%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keita Bates-Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
C.J. Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Nunnally	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.09	0.00	0.09	4	82%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	8	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Josh Okogie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	0.00	-0.07	10	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	0.07	16	50%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	0.06	9	48%	-0.04	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	-0.05	10	19%	-0.04	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	-0.00	-0.02	11	18%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	1.6	24.5	15.4	26.5	1.6	25.4	118.3
league avg	25.3	2.2	27.8	14.6	27.6	2.2	31.9	132.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.9%

MIL +4.9%

MIL +1.2%

MIN -1.2%

MIL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	MIN	NBA	MIL	MIN	NBA
this game	12.2	14.0	14.3	113.6	86.4	109.3
season	13.5	14.4		112.4	110.2
opponent	14.0	14.3		111.8	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	11.6	13.8	10.0	13.4	12.2
MIN	14.1	13.9	15.3	12.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Bledsoe	49	49	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.27	21	9	12	11.0	13.1	-2.16	14.8	13.4	1.42
Brook Lopez	55	53	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.38	24	6	18	11.9	12.4	-0.45	14.4	13.7	0.71
Khris Middleton	57	57	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.18	17	13	4	11.2	13.2	-2.03	14.6	13.5	1.11
Ersan Ilyasova	46	47	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.10	13	17	-4	11.8	12.4	-0.53	13.8	14.2	-0.34
Malcolm Brogdon	58	56	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.46	25	5	20	12.3	12.0	0.26	14.6	13.5	1.11
Donte DiVincenzo	41	41	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.33	20	10	10	12.7	11.8	0.88	14.2	13.9	0.35
John Henson	40	42	0.25	0.25	-0.01	-0.10	12	18	-6	12.1	12.2	-0.13	14.3	13.9	0.38
Giannis Antetokounmpo	56	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.20	15	15	0	11.0	13.4	-2.42	14.8	13.2	1.62
Pat Connaughton	38	39	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.03	5	25	-20	13.5	11.4	2.06	13.4	14.4	-0.96
Tony Snell	37	36	0.08	0.42	-0.33	-0.03	4	26	-22	12.9	11.8	1.07	13.0	14.5	-1.49
Thon Maker	27	28	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	30	-30	13.4	11.7	1.71	12.7	14.5	-1.71
Matthew Dellavedova	23	23	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	33	-36	13.7	11.8	1.89	12.3	14.5	-2.12
Sterling Brown	23	23	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	33	-36	13.7	11.8	1.89	12.3	14.5	-2.12

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keita Bates-Diop	13	13	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-28	26	11.2	14.4	-3.26	14.2	11.9	2.35
C.J. Williams	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-30	30	10.2	14.4	-4.14	14.0	12.0	2.01
James Nunnally	9	9	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-30	30	10.2	14.4	-4.14	14.0	12.0	2.01
Luol Deng	28	27	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-30	30	12.7	14.5	-1.71	13.4	11.7	1.71
Gorgui Dieng	34	35	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-25	20	14.7	13.7	1.02	12.4	12.0	0.36
Tyus Jones	60	60	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.06	-6	-24	18	13.6	14.5	-0.83	12.6	11.6	1.05
Taj Gibson	45	46	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.20	-15	-15	0	15.4	13.0	2.40	11.1	12.9	-1.83
Anthony Tolliver	56	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.18	-15	-15	0	13.5	14.6	-1.07	12.7	11.6	1.18
Jeff Teague	50	50	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.44	-24	-6	-18	14.5	13.6	0.83	11.6	12.6	-1.05
Derrick Rose	60	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.02	-10	-20	10	14.3	13.6	0.71	12.5	11.7	0.80
Jimmy Butler	55	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.36	-23	-7	-16	14.8	13.3	1.51	11.8	12.5	-0.75
Karl-Anthony Towns	63	62	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.29	-23	-7	-16	14.2	13.7	0.49	11.6	12.9	-1.32
Josh Okogie	68	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.38	-27	-3	-24	14.2	13.8	0.35	11.4	13.4	-2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.47,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.22,0.16,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 108, LAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.43,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
BOS 108, SAC 63	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.0%
SAS 101, SEA 73	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.14,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.8%